家电行业：行业增长趋缓，龙年还看龙头

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1、家电行业：行业增长趋缓，龙年还看龙头请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc4>>Appliancesindustrygrowthslowed,ChoosingleadingenterprisesinYearofthedragon2012年年度投资策略2012AnnualInvestmentStrategy渐飞研究报告-//bg.panlv.net请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc>资料来源：信达证券研发中心注：行业规模以申万分类为准，信达覆盖包括了节能照明行业资料来源：信达证券研发中心看淡看好中性2012年年度投资策略2012年2月10日本

2、期内容提要：2011年家电行业受国内家电产品销售不顺、房地产限购、家电下乡政策逐渐退出和国际经济环境恶化等影响，家电行业景气度逐渐下降，行业增长呈前高后低的走势。分行业来看，白电、厨卫、小家电增速下滑明显，黑电保持相对稳定增速。家电行业经过将近2年的高速发展，整个行业已经进入一个新的调整期，我们判断在2012年第一季度行业增速将会触底，随着毛利率的提升和国内需求回暖，下半年行业增速将会有所恢复。??内需方面，经过我们的初步统计，家电下乡政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是电冰箱、彩电、洗衣机和空调；以旧换新政策拉动需求的影响从大到小的分别是彩电、空调、洗衣机和电冰箱；商品房

3、住宅销售面积增速与电冰箱和空调增速的相关性最大；外需方面，电冰箱和空调对欧美出口的比重相对较大。未来关注节能环保电器和高端电器，同时注意新消费刺激政策推出。上游材料价格和人力成本大幅上升，房地产销售面积严重萎缩，新消费刺激政策力度低于预期，欧债危机影响扩大，人民币升值的风险。2012年家电行业将进入一轮新的调整期，增速趋缓，行业还在等待未来需求回暖，我们维持之前的“中性”评级。2012年关注产品升级、国内需求变化和新消费政策出台，选择竞争力强、盈利能力突出、品牌知名度高、估值水平较低的龙头企业，白电的格力电器和青岛海尔，黑电的海信电器，厨卫小家电的老板电器，LED节能照明

4、的阳光照明。重点公司盈利预测与评级资料来源：wind，信达证券研发中心预测注：股价为2012年2月8日收盘价本期内容提要:渐飞研究报告-//bg.panlv.net请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露//.cindasc>目录表目录································································································································12011··········································

5、···························22012···············<>3···········································<>3·····························································································5··············72012·····································72012··································10··

6、··············································122012···················1<>32012···················································1<>3························································14····················································16:LED·17Q110%·······························

7、··············17························································19························································20<>3D··················22·······································24LED······································252012······················