GDP与失业率之间的关系

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1、AnalysingthetermsoftradeeffectonGDPandemploymentinthepresenceoflowrealunitlabourcostsXichuan(Mark)ZhangStuartGourleyFranklinSorianoAustralianBureauofStatisticsOutline!Backgroundandmotivation!Descriptiveandbusinesscycleanalysis!VECMexploratoryanalysis!RemarksAustralianBureauofStatisticsBac

2、kground&motivationAustralianBureauofStatisticsBackground&motivationAustralianBureauofStatisticsDescriptiveanalysisAustralianBureauofStatisticsDescriptiveanalysis!Thetermsoftradeeffect,realgrossdomesticincome(RDGI)anddomesticfinaldemand(DFD)•Relativepricechangenotdirectlyreflectedinvolumem

3、easureofGDP•IncreasedrealpurchasingpoweroftheAustralianeconomy•Boosttorealincomes•FlowontodomesticdemandAustralianBureauofStatisticsBusinesscycleanalysisCrosscorrelationwithNFGDP!EmploymentisusuallyalaggingindicatorofGDP.!RGDIandDFDareusuallycoincidentindicatorofGDP!Theseusualpatternsseem

4、distortedsince2004.AustralianBureauofStatisticsBusinesscycleanalysisAustralianBureauofStatisticsAimsandVECMapproach!BetterunderstandtherelationshipbetweenGDP,employment,thetermsoftradeandlabourcosts"effectoftermsoftradeshocks?"roleplayedbyhistoricallylowbutstablerealunitlabourcosts?!Canth

5、erecentrelationshipbetweenGDPandemploymentbeexplainedbythesefactors?!Analysisisdatadriven.Noapriorieconomicstructureimposed.AustralianBureauofStatisticsAimsandVECMapproach!Multivariatetimeseriesmodel-vectorerrorcorrectionmodel(VECM).!Variableschosen:•non-farmrealGDP(NFGDP)•totalemployedpe

6、rsons(EMP)•thetermsoftrade(TOT)•realunitlabourcosts(RULC)•thegapbetweenDFDandGDP(DFDGap)•thetradeweightedindex(TWI)!RGDIisdirectlyderivedfromTOTandGDPandexcludedduetocollinearitywithTOTAustralianBureauofStatisticsDirectandindirectrelationshipsbetweenthevariables!Identifiedmodeldynamics-Gr

7、angercausalitytestsAustralianBureauofStatisticsLongrunrelationships!CointegrationbetweenGDP,employmentandrealunitlabourcostslog(EMP)=(t-stats)t-10.436log(NFGDP)(24.383)t-1-0.649log(RULC)(-4.526)t-1#LowrealunitlabourcostssupportthelongrunlevelofemploymentAustralianBu