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1、September9,2008China:BanksSeptember9,2008China:BanksPropertydeveloperloans:S/Trisks,lowsystemicrisks;beselectiveContinuedcashburnatdevelopersposesn-tNPL/macrorisksRealestateloancreditqualityhasheldupsofardespiteweakeningpricesPropertytransactionsslowedmaterially('000sqm)Rm
2、bmnandtransactionvolumes,partlyduetothehighprofitmarginsonproperty16,000200,000180,00014,000projectsthatattractedcontinuedfinancingflowin1H08.However,we160,00012,000believethecontinuingdeclineintransactionvolumes,weakeningbuyer140,00010,000120,000sentiment,inventorybuild-u
3、pandfallinggrossmarginswillleadtoacash8,000100,00080,0006,000squeezeforsomedevelopers,particularlyin4Q08and1H09;weseethisas60,0004,000anemergingrealestateNPLriskforChinabanksin4Q08/2009.40,0002,00020,000--Moreover,weseethescalingbackofrealestateinvestment,whichiscriticalJa
4、n-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08GFASoldRevenuefordeveloperstosurvive,posingriskstomacrogrowth(20ppyoyslowdownSource:CIA.inpropertyinvestmentgrowthmayreduceGDPgrowthratesby~1pp).PotentialcashflowsqueezeatdevelopersSystemicrisklow;recoveryhingesonaf
5、fordability,policyeasingRmbmn1H072H071H082H08EUnlikeUS/Japan,webelievesystemicriskislow/manageable,as:(1)Operatingcashinflow70,839120,68986,52172,905Operatingcashoutflow78,053147,747118,184153,934affordabilityisanissueforselectcities(e.g.Beijing/Shenzhen)ratherthanaNetoper
6、atingcashinflow/(outflow)(7,215)(27,058)(31,663)(81,030)Netinvestingcashinflow/(outflow)(3,809)(10,731)(8,687)(8,585)nationwideproblem.WeexpectaffordabilityinthesecitiestoreturntotheirNetfinancingcashinflow/(outflow)21,02055,11245,52235,823Netcashinflow/(outflow)10,02217,2
7、865,109(53,792)1998-2007averagein2010,basedonourforecastof~12%p.a.riseinChinaEndingcashbalance50,17169,70278,12224,330householdincomeanda5%-20%propertypricedeclinefrom2Q08to2009;Source:Wind,andGaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates.(2)totalpropertyloans,includingmortgages,areat
8、amanageable18%oftotalloans,vs.53%oftotalcommercialbankloansintheUS;(3)ChinaEarningssensit
