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1、GlobalCommoditiesResearch25November2019Correction(firstpublished22November2019)MetalsQuarterlyAdifferenttypeofreflation·SinceourlatestMetalsQuarterlyreportinSeptember,twoofthecentralthreatstotheglobaleconomyhaveeasedmoderately,liftingsomeofthemajordown
2、sidetailrisksoutofouroutlook.·Providingmorefundamentalsupporttoeasinggeopoliticaltensions,weseesignsofstabilizinggrowth,particularlyinmanufacturing.·Oureconomistsaregainingconvictionthatdecreasedgeopoliticaltensionandpolicyeasingwilldelayarecession,lif
3、tgrowthandextendtheexpansionnextyear.·Giventhisextension,thecurrent2018-2019slowdownshouldbeviewedasathirdintra-cycleresetthatwillbefollowedbyareturntoabove-trendglobalgrowthnextyear.·Duringpreviousnon-recessionarygrowthinflectionpoints(’98,’03,’05,’12
4、and’16),baseandpreciousmetalshavereturned40%and14%,respectively,onaverage,inthe12monthsfollowingabottomingintheglobalmanufacturingPMI.·Thisaverageperformanceisheavilyskewedbypre-GlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC)returns,though,whichaveraged59%forbaseand28%forp
5、reciousmetalsoverthePMIbouncesin’98,’03,and’05.·Post-GFCreturns(’12and’16)havebeendecisivelymoresubdued,averagingonly12%forbasemetalsandresultinginanoutrightcontractionof-7%forpreciousmetals.·The2012slowdownwasfollowedbyatepidrecoveryanddreadfulreturns
6、inthemetalssector(-6%forbase/-20%forprecious),likelyinfluencedbyChina’sreluctancetostimulateaswellastheFed’smiscommunicationaboutitsintentions.·Thesecondintra-cycleresetof2015-2016wasfollowedbytwoyearsofstrongandsynchronizedglobalgrowth,boostedbyChinas
7、timulatinginearnestandtheFedexplicitlyonhold,enhancingmetalsreturns(31%forbase/5%forprecious).·Reminiscentof2012,whilefirmingglobalgrowthwillbepositiveforcyclicalcommodities,China’sreluctancetostimulateshouldultimatelycaptheperformanceofChina-sensitive
8、industrialmetals.Wereviseour2020basemetalspriceforecastshigherbutarenotcallingforamassivereflationaryboosttobasemetals.·Inpreciousmetals,aswasthecasein2016,growthupliftalongsideaFedexplicitlyonholdshouldbeinherentlypositive,butnotuber-b
