德银-越来越强，亚洲宏观经济月报：-20171012-deutschebank-asiaeconomicsmonthly：fromstrengthtostrength

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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsDate12October2017AsiaEconomicsMonthlyFromstrengthtostrengthEMAsiahascontinuedtobenefitfromstrongexternaldemand.ExportgrowthKaushikDasacceleratedinQ3,hintingatstrongerGDPgrowthinQ3fortheregion.BetterChiefEconomiststill,inflationarypressureremaine

2、dbenign,althoughtherecentFXvolatilityis(+91)2271804909likelytopromptsomeCBstorefrainfromfurthermonetaryeasing.kaushik.das@db.comChina:Weexpectamodestpolicy-ledslowdowningrowthto6.6%inQ3fromJulianaLee6.9%inQ2,asacontinuedlandmarketboomaddstogovernmentrevenueChiefEconomistandsupp

3、ortstheeconomy.(+852)22038312juliana.lee@db.comHongKong:Fiscalandmonetarypoliciesaremovinginnewdirections.TheCEhasproposedrunningdownfiscalreservestofinancehighergovernmentMichaelSpencer,PhDspendingwhiletheHKMAisdeliberatelydrainingliquiditytotrytomanageaChiefEconomistgradualad

4、justmentofinterestrates.(+852)22038303India:Wethinkthepessimismsurroundingthenear-termgrowthoutlookismichael.spencer@db.comexcessiveandunwarranted.AstheGST-relatedissuesgetsortedoutandapositivebaseeffectcomesintoplay,India'srealGDPgrowthshouldreturnZhiweiZhang,PhDoncegaintoabov

5、e7%in2HFY18,inourview.ChiefEconomist(+852)22038308Indonesia:GDPgrowthisstableataboutitslong-runpotential,butcuriouslyzhiwei.zhang@db.comweakretailsalesgrowthsuggestsallmaynotbeaswellastheyappear.InflationislowenoughbuttheIDRdepreciationrecentlylikelywillservetoconvinceBItorefra

6、infromfurtherratehikes.Malaysia:Recentdataonexports,retailsalesandcapacityutilizationsuggestTableofContentsupsiderisktoour2017growthforecast.CoreinflationremainslowenoughAsiaOverviewPage03thatBNMneedbeinnohurrytoraiserates.ChinaPage04HongKongPage06Philippines:Growthremainsabove

7、potential,whichshouldpushinflationIndiaPage08highernextyear,causingBSPtostartraisingratesaroundmid-year.ThereturnIndonesiaPage14toacurrentaccountsurplusshouldhelpmitigatethedepreciationofthepesoMalaysiaPage16resultingfromanarrowinginterestrategaptotheUS.PhilippinesPage18Singapo

8、rePage20Singapore:ExportsreboundedsharplyinQ3,posingup