德银-亚洲-宏观经济-亚洲经济月报：推动渐进加息

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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsDate10November2017AsiaEconomicsMonthlyPushforgradualratehikesWiththenegativeoutputgapclosing,EMAsiacentralbanksarelikelytooptKaushikDasformoderateratehikesahead–generallylessaggressivelythantheFed.ChiefEconomist(+91)227180490

2、9China:Our2017GDPgrowthforecastis0.1pptshighernowat6.8%.Presidentkaushik.das@db.comXi’slong-termviewonChinafocusesmoreonthequalityofgrowthratherthanthespeed,whichwethinkisappropriate.WeexpecttheleaderssettheJulianaLeegrowthtargetfor2018moreflexibly,andgrowth

3、willslowto6.3%.ChiefEconomist(+852)22038312HongKong:Fiscalandmonetarypoliciesaremovinginoppositedirections.juliana.lee@db.comLastmonth’sPolicyAddressseemedtopromiseamoreexpansionaryfiscalpolicy.TheHKMAhas,temporarilywethink,suspendedliquiditydrainingMichaelS

4、pencer,PhDoperationsbutinterestratesaremostlikelytocontinuerisingthrough2019.ChiefEconomistIndia:AsequentialrecoveryingrowthfromJuly-Sep’17quarterislikely,with(+852)22038303themomentumimprovingfurtherin2HFY18,asthebaseeffectturnspositive.michael.spencer@db.c

5、omIndonesia:GDPgrowthisstableataboutitslong-runpotentialrate,despiteZhiweiZhang,PhDcuriouslyweakretailsalesgrowth.InflationislowenoughbuttheIDRChiefEconomistdepreciationrecentlyandrisingcrudeoilpricesposeupsiderisksthatwethink(+852)22038308willconvinceBItore

6、frainfromfurthereasing.zhiwei.zhang@db.comMalaysia:Recentdatasuggestupsideriskstoour2017GDPgrowthforecastbutalsotoourinflationforecast.CoreinflationremainslowenoughthatBNMneedbeinnohurrytoraiseinterestrates,butweexpectonehikenextyear.Philippines:Growthremain

7、sabovepotential,whichshouldpushinflationhighernextyear,causingBSPtostartraisingratesaroundmid-year.Inflationrisksaretotheupside.TableofContentsSingapore:StrongQ3outcomepushesupour2017and2018growthforecastAsiaOverviewPage03to2.9%and2.7%,respectively,settingth

8、estagefortighteningahead.ChinaPage04HongKongPage06SouthKorea:AverystrongfinishtoQ3pushesupour2017and2018GDPIndiaPage08growthforecastsby0.2ppts.WithChinademandposingfurtherupsideriskstoIndonesiaP