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1、JournalofBehavioralDecisionMakingJ.Behav.Dec.Making,22:101119(2009)Publishedonline9July2008inWileyInterScience(www.interscience.wiley.com)DOI:10.1002/bdm.614TheEffectofConsequentialThinkingonTrustGameBehaviorTAMARKUGLER*,TERRYCONNOLLYandEDGARE.KAUSELDepartmentofManagement
2、andOrganizations,UniversityofArizona,Arizona,USAABSTRACTContrarytorationalExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)predictionsthatnomoneywillbetransferredinTrustGames,inexperimentsplayersmakepositivetransfers.TheoristshaveproposedmodifyingtheSendersutilityfunctionwhileretainingutility-m
3、aximizationassumptionstoaccountforthisbehavior.SuchaccountsassumethatSenderscangraspthepossibleoutcomesoftheirchoices,theirprobabilities,andutilities.Inreality,however,Senderschoicesareunexpectedlycomplex,andtheassumptionthattheyapproximateexpectedutilitymaximizationishig
4、hlyimplausible.Instead,wesuggestthatSendersareguidedbygeneralpropensitiestotrustothers.TwoexperimentsexaminetheeffectofinducingconsequentialthoughtonSenderbehavior.Oneinducedconsequentialthoughtdirectly;theotherdidsoindirectly.Theamountsentwassignificantlyreducedfollowinge
5、ithermanipulation.ThissuggeststhatmodelsofSenderbehaviorinComplexTrustGamesshouldnotassumethatparticipantsroutinelyengageinconsequentialthinking(CT)ofthedepththatwouldberequiredforutilitymaximization.Copyright#2008JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd.keywordstrust;consequentialthinking;reg
6、ret;gameInrecentyears,experimentaleconomistshavepopularizedtheTrustGame(Berg,Dickhaut,&McCabe,1995)toinvestigatetrustingandtrustworthybehavior,andaconsiderableliteraturebasedonthisgamehasnowaccumulated(see,e.g.,Camerer,2003,forareview.AsampleofthisresearchisshowninTable1)
7、.Thegameappearstoofferanunusuallyclearandprecisemeasureofoneplayerswillingnesstotrustanotherandasimilarlyclearmeasureoftheextenttowhichthisdegreeoftrustisjustified.Ourconcerninthepresentpaperistoexaminethesemeasurementclaimscritically,especiallythefirst.Moststudiestodatehav
8、eimplicitlyinterpretedtrustorbehaviorinthesegamesasreflectingthoughtful,detailedassessmentsoftheo
