巴克莱-美股-保险行业-美国保险业3季度预览

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1、EquityResearch26October2017USInsuranceINDUSTRYUPDATE3Q:CBIn-Line;VRMixed;AJGGoodU.S.Insurance/LifeOrganicGrowth;PFGSolidCorePOSITIVEUnchangedCBGoodUnderlyingResult.CB’s3Qoperatinglosswas$0.13,betterthanourestimateU.S.Insurance/Non-Lifeofa31clossandconsensuso

2、fa24closs.The3Qresultincludedpre-announcedcatNEUTRALlossesof$1.9bn.Theimpactamountsto$3.25/shrafter-taxand3%ofbookvalue.WeUnchangedexpectelevated4QcatlossesfromtheCaliforniawildfires.Chubb’sP&Cnetwrittenpremiumsincreased4.6%y/y,aboveouroutlookofunchanged.The

3、underlyingP&CForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandcombinedratio(CR)of88.5%was1pointworsethanourestimateandconsistentwithearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetheyear-agoresult.Reservereleasesof$270mn(3.7CRpoints)wereslightlyaboveourtableonpage2.estimateof$2

4、30mn(3.2CRpoints)includingamodestreservechargeforlegacyU.S.Insurance/Lifeenvironmentliabilities.Netinvestmentincomewasaboveouroutlook.BookvalueperJayGelb,CFAshareincreased0.5%q/qto$108.74whichwasaboveourprojection(-2%).Chubb1.212.526.1561alsorepurchased$232m

5、nofstockin3Q(aboveouroutlookof$125mn).Weupdatejay.gelb@barclays.comour’17EPSto$7.47from$7.28.Nochangetoour’18EPSof$10.70.BCI,USVRMixedUnderlyingResults.VR’s3Qoperatinglosswas$3.22/share,includingSueLee$367mnofpre-announcedcatastrophelosses.VR’s3Qunderlying(e

6、xcluding+12125268190catastrophesandreservedevelopment)lossratioof55.8%wasworsethanoursue.lee@barclays.comprojectionof54.1%.VR’slinked-quarterbookvaluepersharedecreased7.1%q/qtoBCI,US$43.13.VRrepurchasedonly$4mnofsharesin3Q.OurexpectationisforlowshareAndrewKa

7、rpbuybacksthrough2018followinglargecatastrophelosses.Weadjustour’17/’18EPS+12125269015outlookto($0.14)/$4.00from($0.33)/$4.40.andrew.karp@barclays.comBCI,USAJGallagher3QEPSIn-Line;SolidOrganicGrowth.AJG’s3QadjustedEPSof$0.81(+5%y/y)was1cbelowourestimateand2c

8、aboveconsensus.BrokerageorganicKaraMarciscanorevenuegrowthof3.5%(inlinewithouroutlook)wasmostlyconsistentwith2Q+12125269031kara.marciscano@barclays.com(+4.2%).TheBrokerageadjustedEBITDACmarginwa