巴克莱-美股-保险业-美国保险业三季度要点与展望

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1、EquityResearch10November2017USInsuranceEARNINGSREVIEW3QRecap/Outlook:HurricaneLossesU.S.Insurance/LifeLiftP&CPricing;SolidLifeResultsPOSITIVEUnchangedP&Cinsurers’3Qresultswereheavilyimpactedbylargerhurricane-relatedlosseswithU.S.Insurance/Non-Lifethereinsurersabsorbingthegreatesthit

2、toearnings.TotalinsuredcatastrophelossesinNEUTRALFY17couldbethehighesteverataround$140bn.WeexpectreinsurerstopushforrateUnchangedincreasesespeciallyinloss-affectedaccountswhichcouldleadtoslightlyhigherprimarycommercialinsurancepricingaswell.OursenseishigherretrocessionalForafulllist

3、ofourratings,pricetargetand(reinsuranceforreinsurers)rateswilllikelydrive15%-25%increasesforloss-affectedearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseepropertycatreinsuranceaccountsand5%-15%forloss-freeaccounts.Weexpecttableonpage2.re/insurerstosubstantiallyreduceorevenhaltsharerepurchasesin

4、4Q17and2018asU.S.Insurance/Non-Lifetheyrebuildtheircapitalbases.Meanwhile,personallinesinsurersALLandPGRbothJayGelb,CFAexperiencedamanageableimpactfrom3Qcatastrophesandshowedimproved1.212.526.1561underlyingresultsy/y.In4Q,re/insurersexpectlossesfromtheCaliforniawildfires.jay.gelb@ba

5、rclays.comLifeinsurer3QresultswerebetterthanourexpectationacrosstheboardonacoreBCI,USbasisincludingthebenefitofstrongequitymarkets,partiallyoffsetbypersistentlowSueLeeinterestratesandaflatteningyieldcurve(2/10spreadisnarrowestinadecade).On+12125268190theregulatoryfront,weexpectFedre

6、gulationofMETandPRUtobeoffthetablebysue.lee@barclays.comYE17nowthatAIGisnolongerFedregulated.TheDoLhasalsodelayedfinalBCI,USimplementationofitsfiduciarystandardruleby18monthstoJuly2019.WhiletheAndrewKarpmedianlifeinsurerP/Evaluationhasrecoveredto11x,wethinkinvestorsentimentstill+121

7、25269015hasroomtoimproveifinterestratesweretoincreasealongwithasteeperyieldcurve.andrew.karp@barclays.comBCI,USChallenged3QP&Cresults.MostP&Cre/insurersreportedchallenged3Qresultsfollowing$100bnofinsuredindustrycatastrophelosses.ReinsuranceresultsweretheKaraMarciscanomost,challenged

8、,commercialP&Cunder