巴克莱-美股-石油行业-美国整装油：预估调整

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1、EquityResearch14November2017AmericasIntegratedOilINDUSTRYUPDATEFine-TuningEstimatesAmericasIntegratedOilPOSITIVEConcurrentwiththismorning’sreleaseofourU.S.refiningindustryreport,“U.S.UnchangedIndependentRefiners:GoldenAgeStillKickin'–RisingProfitsthrough2021andBeyond”(November14),wearerevisin

2、gourmodelestimatesforthemajors,asaForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandresultoftheassociatedrevisionstoourcommoditypricedeck.Therevisionsearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeprimarilyreflectthefollowing:tableonpage2.CommodityPrices:Brent–Nochangestoourpriceassumptionsthrough2021,AmericasIn

3、tegratedOilexceptformarktomarketrevisionsrelatedto4Q17QTDprices($59averageBrentPaulY.Cheng,CFA4Q17estimatevs.$55averageBrentestimateprior);ourestimatesstillreflectBrent+12125261884priceassumptionsof$60for2018,$65for2019,$70for2020,and$80for2021.paul.cheng@barclays.comWTI–Basedonanalysisdetail

4、edintheabove-referencedrefiningindustryreport,BCI,USwearerevisingourWTICushingestimatesdownbyanaverage2%eachyearAlexLetkothrough2021,andWTIMidlandupbyanaverage1%eachyearthrough2021.+12125267604WCS–BasedonanalysisofWesternCanadatakeawaycapacityandsupply,detailedalex.letko@barclays.comintheabov

5、e-referencedreport,wearerevisingWCSdownby~2-3%in2018/2019BCI,USanddown1%from2018to2021.U.S.NaturalGas–WearerevisinggaspricesMosesSutton,CFAdownbyanaverage3%eachyearthrough2021,reflectinganaveragepriceof+12125264060~$3.3/mcffrom2018to2021.moses.sutton@barclays.comDifferentials:Ourmainrevision

6、isawiderBrent/WTICushingdifferentialineachBCI,USsubsequentforwardyear–$4in2018($3.4prior),$4.9in2019($4prior),$5.6in2020($4.5prior),and$6in2021($4.5prior).SeeFigure1foradditionalkeydifferentialchanges,aswellastheabove-referencedrefiningindustryreportforthebackdrop,commentary,andanalysis.Down

7、stream:WeareupwardlyrevisingearningsforthedownstreamoperationsrelatedtotheAmerican-basedmajorswithintegratedoperations(mega-cap-CVX,XOM,Canadian–CVE,HSE,IMO,SU,Other–PBR/PBRA),resultingfromanaverage15%increaseinNorthAmericanrefiningmarginsbet