巴黎银行-土耳其-宏观经济-先发制人不可松懈

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1、Turkey:Nopre-emptiveeasingH.ErkinIşık,CFAAttheMPCmeetingtoday,18January,theCBRTleftthelateliquiditywindowrateTurkEkonomiBankA.S.unchangedat12.75%,inlinewithourcallandthemarketconsensus,followingaFX&IRCEEMEAStrategist50bphikeatDecember’smeeting.Thestatementhighlightedthatthecentralb

2、ankwilllookthroughthedeclineinheadlineinflationthatwillbetheresultofbaseeffectsinthecomingmonths,sogaveforwardguidancethatitwillnoteasemonetarypolicypre-emptively.WethinkinflationexpectationswereanimportantfactorintheCBRT’sdecisionandthatitwillwaitforexpectedinflationafter24months,w

3、hichcurrentlystandsat8.2%y/y,tofalltoaround7%beforeeasingmonetarypolicy.TheCBRTkeepsratesunchangedTheCentralBankoftheRepublicofTurkey(CBRT)leftthelateliquiditywindow(LLW)rateunchangedat12.75%atitsMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)meetingtoday,inlinewithourcallandthemarketconsensus,followin

4、ga50bphikeatDecember’smeeting.Allothercorridorrateswerealsounchanged.AstheCBRTis,inourview,likelytocontinuetoprovideallfundingthroughtheLLW,theaveragerepofundingrateshouldalsoremainat12.75%(Chart1).Inthenotereleasedwiththedecision,theCBRTcontinuedtosaythatthecurrentelevatedlevelsofin

5、flationandinflationexpectationsposeriskstopricingbehaviour.Italsosaidthatitwillmaintainitstightstanceuntilinflationandtheinflationoutlookimprovesignificantly“independentofbaseeffectsandtemporaryfactors”(withthisquotedcommentanewaddition)andbecomeconsistentwithtargets.Wehavebeenhighli

6、ghtingthatheadlineinflationwilldeclinetoaround10.5%y/yinJanuaryandfallfurthertoaround10%inthefollowingmonths,downfrom13%inNovember2017.However,thisdeclineismostlyrelatedtobaseeffectswhichtheCBRThasnowsaiditwilllookthrough,waitingforamorelastingimprovementintheinflationoutlook.Long-te

7、rminflationexpectationswillbekeyIntheCBRT’sJanuarySurveyofExpectations,expectedinflationafter12monthsdeclinedbyasmall6bpto9.24%butthatafter24monthsdroppedbyamoresignificant24bpto8.23%.However,theseratesremainwellabovetheinflationtargetat5%,eventakingaccountthe2ppuncertaintybandaround

8、thistarget.W