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1、AsiaPacificShippingDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateJapan6November2017AsiaPacificTransportationShippingRecommendationMarineChangeUnsustainablevaluationgap,clearinvestmentopportunitiesSkyHong,CFABuyCSET-Hvs.SellCSH-H;BuyNYKandMOLvs.SellK-LineResearchAnalys
2、tWearebullishonbulker,forwhichweexpecttoseemulti-yearupcycle,drivenbyimprovingS/D.Conversely,weremainbearishoncontainer.The3Qpeakseason+852-22036131wasmutedwhileacceleratingmegavesseldeliverieswillcontinuetoweighinJoeLiew,CFA2018.InChina,CSET-H'searningssettoimpr
3、ovealongwithtankercyclerecoveryResearchAnalystandcurrent0.5xP/Blooksrathercompelling.Tradingat1.7xP/B,CSH-Hlooks+81-3-5156-6725overvaluedgivendeterioratingoutlookforcontainer.InJapan,wefavorNYK(U/GtoBuy)andMOLoverK-Line.Apartfromexpensivevaluations,K-Linehasahigh
4、erKeyChangesexposuretocontainer,whichsuggeststhatitsearningsoutlookiscloudierthanCompanyTargetPriceRatingtheothertwocarriers.WeupgradeNYKtoBuyfromHoldonearningsupgrades9104.T3,900.00to-postastronger-than-expected2Q.Corporateactionsandshareholderactivism4,500.00ha
5、vesubstantiallyliftedsharepricesofCSH-HandK-Line,whicharenowtrading9101.T2,100.00toHoldtoBuy2,900.00atvaluationsthatareoutoflinewithourprojectionsoffuturereturnsandatrecord9107.T1,400.00to-premiumsovertheircountrypeers.Wethinkthislooksunsustainable,further1,800.0
6、0underpinningourstockcalls.Source:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.ToppicksCN:CSH-HtradingatarecordpremiumoverCSET-H,unsustainableCoscoShippingEnergyTransBuyCSH-Hiscurrentlytradingat1.7xP/B,ora237%premiumoverCSET's0.5x.(1138.HK),HKD4.56Thisisanall-timehighwiththeexceptionof
7、July-Augustthisyear,whentheCoscoShippingHldgsSellannouncementoftheOOILacquisitionliftedtheformer'ssharepricesignificantly.(1919.HK),HKD4.10Source:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.Theaveragepremiumsince2005is78%.Fundamentally,afteradisappointing3Qpeakseason,weexpectcontainerr
8、atestodropfurther,draggingCSH-Hdownintoloss-makingterritoryagainin4Q.Weremainbearishoncontainerin2018asmegavesseldeliveriesaresettoaccelerate.Conversely,thetan
