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1、MacauDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina31October2017HongKongMacauConsumerIndustryUpdateHotels/Leisure/GamingVIPpickedupstronglyafterGoldenWeekKarenTangVIPvolumepickedupnoticeablyafterPartyCongressendedResearchAnalystWespenttodayinMacautalking
2、tojunketsandpremiummasshosts.AfterGoldenWeekdisappointed(Oct1-8thGGRonlygrewc.9%yoy),Macaustocks+852-22036141fell7%onaverageduringOct.Butsurprisingly,weheardtodaythatmanybigToppicksVIPsandpremiummassplayersshowedupafterGoldenWeek,avoidingtheWynnMacau(1128.
3、HK),HKD19.36Buycrowdedholidayperiod.Moreimportantly,VIPvolumepickedupnoticeablyoverMGMChina(2282.HK),HKD17.00Buythepastweek,afterChina'sPartyCongressended.Asaresult,wenowthinkSource:DeutscheBankOctGGRwillbeatBloombergconsensus(14.5%yoy).Ashighlightedinourr
4、eportCompaniesfeatured(GoldenWeekkickedoff,3Oct17),werecommendinvestorsbuytoppicksWynnWynnMacau(1128.HK),HKD19.36BuyMacau(Buy)andMGMChina(Buy)asbeneficiariesofjunketexpansion.We2016A2017E2018Ealsoexpectanotheraroundofconsensusupgradessoon:DBforecasts2018P/E
5、(x)24.024.818.2GGR+13%(vsconsensus+9%).EV/EBITDA(x)17.315.512.9Price/book(x)26.134.323.1NewwaveofjunketroomexpansionSandsChina(1928.HK),HKD36.50HoldInourreport(3Qpreview,12Oct17),weexplainedthatthesharpVIPgrowth2016A2017E2018Ein3Qwasdrivenbyaggressiveexpan
6、sionbysmallandmid-sizedjunkets.InP/E(x)23.024.922.33Q,over20junketroomswereopenedinMacau,ofwhich6-7bynewjunkets.EV/EBITDA(x)15.316.215.2Amongthemid-sizedjunkets,weseeDavidGroupasthemostaggressiveastheyPrice/book(x)7.08.59.3haveopened4VIProomssofarthisyear,
7、includingthelatestinGalaxyMacauMGMChina(2282.HK),HKD17.00Buy(openedAugust).WebelievetheBig4junketswillalsostepuptheirVIProom2016A2017E2018Eopeningscheduleoverthenextfewmonths.SeeFigure4fordetails.WynnmgmtP/E(x)14.826.423.7highlightedinitsconfcallthatWynnPe
8、ninsulaisaddinganewjunketandisalsoEV/EBITDA(x)13.120.213.7givingmoretablestoanexistingjunket.WebelieveMGMPeninsulawillalsoaddPrice/book(x)8.57.36.1abigjunketbeforeyear-end.WefeelthattheStreetstillunder-estima
