德银-中国-家用电器行业-三季度后投资者主要争论，我们仍然看好

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaHome13November2017ConsumerAppliancesForecastChangeJohnChouAnneLingInvestors’keydebatespost3Q17ResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036196(+852)22036177results,weremainbullishjohn.chou@db.comanne.ling@db.comS

2、tayingpositiveonairconditionerrestockingcycle,toppicksMideaandGreeKeyChangesWeremainpositiveontheChinesehomeappliancessector;wepreferairCompanyTargetPriceRatingconditionerplayersasweexpectfurtherbenefitsfromtherestockingcycle.000333.SZ44.57to-DespitePEvaluation

3、sbeingatmeanplustwostandarddeviations,theyremain63.00(CNY)belowthelastpeakcycleseenin2009-11.Asweseethesectorenteringinto600690.SS16.51to-structuralgrowth,drivenbyconsumptionupgrade,inthisreportweliftour23.50(CNY)earningsby6%~16%andargueforfurtherre-rating.Weal

4、soprovideour000651.SZ44.40to-49.20(CNY)viewsonthekeyinvestors'concernspost3Qresults.1169.HK16.78to-Investors’topquestionsandourtake25.00(HKD)Propertymarketslowdownandthehighbasehavebeeninvestors’mainSource:DeutscheBankconcerns.Ingeneral,homeappliancecorporates

5、expectdeceleratedsalesYoYinto4Q17butalsoseestructuraldriverstocushiontheslowdown(thisissimilartoourchannelcheck).Greelikelyfacesthehighestbasein4Q17(4Q16grosssalesup63%YoY),butitremainsconfidentonthe4Q17outlook,thankstodistributors’strongcommitmenttorestocking3

6、Q17channelchecknote:(noteadvancedpaymentincreased141%YoYin3Q17).Mideaforecastsahttp://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-declarationfor4Q17salesYoY,butremainsconfidentofdeliveringdouble-bin/pull/DocPull/660-digitpptsalesgrowthforboth4Q17and2018(moresustainablethanourD8

7、FC/1726737/0900b8c08da78138.pdfexpectation),partlythankstoastrongairconditionerreplacementcycle.QingdaoHaierfocusesonpremiumizationandmarketshareexpansion.IndustryvaluationandrisksManagementnotedthatitshigh-endCasartebrandgrew41%YoYduringOurprimaryvaluationmeth

8、odologyis9M17.Robam’s3Q17revenuedeceleration(to23%vs.27%in1H17),onDCF,whichcapturesthefuturecashflowofwhitegoodscompanies.WealsousetopofMideaandQingdaoHaier’scommentsonkitch