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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateSovereigns5February2018JayantGuptaStrategistEMDebt:TechnicalsMonitor(+1)904271-3885jayanth.gupta@db.comJanuary2018RebeccaKlausenStrategist(+44)20754-55173rebecca.klausen@db.comSummary:TechnicalconditionsforEM
2、creditremainsupportiveasinflowshavebeenHongtaoJiangstrongwhilefunds'positioningdoesnotseemheavy(basedonmutualfundbeta)cushioningtheimpactofarecentsurgeinsupply.EMsovereignssoldStrategistUSD37bnworthofbonds(orUSD25bninnetsupply)inJanuary.WithUST(+1)212250-2524y
3、ieldsontherise,wealwaysexpectedissuancetobefrontloaded.Butwithhongtao.jiang@db.comnewissuerslikelytocometomarket,wehaverevisedourtotalgrossissuanceprojectionfor2018toaroundUSD160bn(netsupplyofUSD70bn).InflowssurgedinJanuaryEMdebtfundflows(%AUM)StronginflowsinJ
4、anuary2.0InflowsinhardcurrencyfundsacceleratedinJanuaryafterwitnessingamoderatepaceduringlate2017.Overall,EMhardcurrencyfundsabsorbedin1.0excessofUSD5.7bn(2.5%AUM)inJanuary,thoughthepaceofinflowreducedduringtheweekending31stJanuary.Duringthesameperiod,EM0.0loc
5、alandblendedcurrencyfundsabsorbedUSD4.2bn(3%AUM)and-1.0USD1.2bn(2.3%AUM),respectively.GivennegativetotalreturnsintheEMweeklyflowsbenchmarkrecently,wemayseeoutflowsinthecomingweek(s),butwe-2.0Hardccy4wkMAbelieveoutflowsareunlikelytobesustained.Localccy4wkMA-3.0
6、HardcurrencyETFs,whoseAUMare15%oftheEPFRweeklyflowstotal,hadJan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18beenabigcontributortotheinflows(about40%).However,ETFfundshaveSource:EPFR,DeutscheBank,EPFRwitnessedoutflowsinexcessof1.5%AUM(ETFAUM:USD35bn)duringthelastweek,whichisfurt
7、herexpectedtoacceleratethisweekafterrecentselloff.OutsidetheEMdebtspace,USHighYieldfundscontinuedtofaceUpcomingexpectedissuancessignificantredemptionswithoutflowsinexcessof-0.8%%AUM,whileUSIGCorpfundsadded0.8%AUM.Meanwhile,EMequityfundswitnessedrecordinflowsad
8、dingUSD2.5bn(2%AUM).IssuersfloodedtheprimarymarketAsexpected,JanuarysawablizzardofnewissuanceswiththeFedremainingonahikingpath,andissuersrushingtotheprimarymarkettolockinlowcoupons
