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ID:8224789
大小:1.75 MB
页数:59页
时间:2018-03-10
《德银-新兴市场-利率与信贷-新兴市场月报:依然强劲》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateCEEMEAForeignExchange16October2017RatesCreditElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEAMonthly:Stillrobust(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comKubilayOzturkEMbusinesscycles-growth,inflation,andpolicies-areontrackandunlikelyChiefEconomisttob
2、edisruptedbyFedrepricing,inourview.Webecamemorecautiousin(+90)2123170124recentmonthsbecauseofmarketrisk-rewardnoteconomics.AsfarasEMpullkubilay.ozturk@db.comfactorsareconcernedtheupturnseemsintactamidcontainedinflationandwithsurprisinglygooddemand(andprices)forEMexports.WhileidiosyncraticDaneleeM
3、asiaimbalancespreventedastrongerpass-throughtoEMin2013-15weexpectastrongerboostthistimearoundonEM’simprovedconditions.Economist(+27)11775-7267InEEMEAweexpectgrowthtocontinuetoberobust,whileinflationisnotyetdanelee.masia@db.comathreatinmostcountrieswithanexceptionofTurkey.Wecontinuetoseepositivegr
4、owthmomentumacrosstheregion,withCEEaheadofthepack,HongtaoJiangfollowedbyTurkeyandRussia,butseeriskoffurtherdisappointmentsinStrategistSouthAfrica.Turkey’smuchfearedpoliticalriskmaterializedintheformofthe(+1)212250-2524diplomaticrowwiththeUS,whichwebelieverequiresclosemonitoringgivenhongtao.jiang@
5、db.compotentialadverseimpactonTurkishassetsincaseoffurtherescalation.Lira’sunderperformance,ifcontinued,wouldmakeusevenmoreworriedregardingChristianWietoskainflationoutlookandinturnmonetarypolicynormalizationcouldbepostponedStrategistbeyondQ12018.InRussia,weexpectinflationtocontinuetosurpriseonth
6、e(+44)20754-52424downsidefallingtolessthan3%byend-2017.InSouthAfrica,inflationmaychristian.wietoska@db.comstillsurprisetothedownsideintheneartermandwehaverevisedourterminalrateforecastfor2017slightlyto6.75%from7.00%,inreactiontothedovishGautamKalani,PhDInflationReport.Weexpectnoratehikesin2018for
7、now.However,weStrategistremainconcernedaboutthepossiblecreditratingdowngradeonthebackof(+44)20754-57066fiscalslippagesandpoliticalrepercussionsoftheANCDecemberconference.gautam.kalani@db.comInCEE,strongdomesticdemandsu
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