麦格理-全球-股票策略-准备战斗：从股票看财报季-20171010-macquarie-ready for battle stocks to watch this earnings season

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1、ASIAReadyforBattleStockstowatchthisearningsseason25stockswhereweexpectconsensusearningsrevisionsMacquarie’s‘ReadyforBattle’(RfB)reporthighlightssomeofourhighest-convictionfundamentally-drivenearningscallsfromourAsiacoverageofmorethan900stocks.Inthisquarterlyreport,wehighlig

2、ht25stockswherewehavedifferentiatedfull-year2017Eearningsestimatesvsconsensus,andwherewehaveconvictionthatconsensusislikelytomovetowardsourhouseestimatesoverthecourseofthenextfewmonths.Ourobjectiveistoidentifystockswhereweexpectconsensusearningsrevisionstooccur(ratherthanlo

3、okbackwardsonrevisionsthathavealreadymaterialised).Whilstouranalysisisbasedonfull-year2017Eestimates,weexpecttheupcomingearningsseasontobeanaturalcatalystthatwilltriggerEarningsRevisioncandidatesrevisionsfromthestreet.AnysurprisesintheupcomingseasonshouldhaveaMQvsConsTicker

4、CompanyNameRecTPMetricMQEst.rptknock-oneffectonfull-yearearningstoo,inourview.upsidevsdate*(%)^ConsEsts20earningsupgradevs5earningsdowngradecandidates%ConsensusEarningsUPGRADEcandidatesForthefifthstraightquarter,ourearningsconvictionideaslisthasmoreearningsHMCLINHeroMotoCor

5、pOP13EPS5%LastwkOct1313HKCRCementOP31EPS17%20-Octupgradevsdowngradecandidates.Ofthe25stockswehighlightinthisreport,384HKChinaGasOP12EPS5%End-Nov763HKZTEOP19EPS7%26-Octthereare20stockswhereouranalystsexpectconsensusearningsupgradesADROIJAdaroEnergyOP43EPS25%Mid-NovACPMAyalaC

6、orp.OP3EPS10%10-Novtooccurbasedonfull-yearearningsestimates.Notableupgradecandidatesare002415CHHikvision(A)OP34EPS10%30-Oct1590TTAirTACOP9EPS6%By15-NovHynix,Samsung,Baidu,Hikvision,WynnMacau,AdaroandPowertech.In6239TTPowertechOP33EPS7%Late-Octcontrast,ouranalystsidentify5st

7、ockswheretheyhaveconvictionthattheseareBIDUUSBaiduOP23EPS13%End-OctBABAUSAlibabaOP12EPS8%Mid-Novlikelytosufferconsensusearningsdowngradesintotheyearend.000660KSSKHynixOP16OP3%25-Oct005930KSSamsungElec.OP40OP2%13-Oct(P)6923JPStanleyElectricOP13OP8%30-OctThetopfigureontheleft

8、panelshowskeypicksfortheupcomingearnings7261JPMazdaMotorOP53OP6%2-Nov7267JPHondaMo