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1、31July201831July2018GlobalEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyGlobalEquityStrategySTRATEGYBalanceofriskskeepsusoverweightequitiesAlthoughwehaveseensixofthepreconditionsofanormalmarketpeak,ineachcasewebelievethereareeffectivecounterarguments,andthusweremainp
2、ositiveonglobalequities.WeforecastreturnsfortheMSCIACWorldof5.8%byyear-end2018and9.0%bymid-2019.Webelievethefollowingfactorssupportourcontinuedoverweightstance:MutedUSwagegrowth:IfUSwagegrowthacceleratedto3.2-3.5%,marginswouldfallandtheFedwouldhavetoslo
3、wgrowthtotrend(i.e.1.8%GDPgrowth).WecontinuetobelievethatthesecriticallevelsofwagegrowthwillnotbebreacheduntilQ42019.Corporateearnings:WeforecastunderlyingEPSgrowthofc8%intheUSandtheeuroareain2019.TheEBITDAmarginextechis3%belowaveragelevels,whiletechmar
4、ginsarelikelytobemoreresilientthankstoamoreoligopolisticindustrystructure,netcashpositionandlabour-lightbusinessmodels.Netmarginsareatanall-timehigh,but35%ofthemarginimprovementistaxand17%isinterest.Assetturnsareclosetoall-timelowsdespitecorporatesmovin
5、gtoacapital-lightmodel:asproductivityimproves,soshouldassetturns,boostingRoE.Valuation:Theequityriskpremiumis5.2%(onournumbers)againstawarrantedERP(basedoncreditspreadsandISM/PMI)of3.6%.TheUSmedianP/Eisonly10%aboveitshistoricalaveragelevels.OutsidetheUS
6、,theP/Eon12-monthforwardandShillerapproachesis16%and12%,respectively,belowthehistoricalnorm.Wefindthatthemarketisineffectdiscountingac30%fallintheRoE.Recessionriskslow,fornow:Historically,USbearmarketshavetendedtostartnomorethan13monthsaheadofarecession
7、.Lookingattheyieldcurve,outputgap,corporateFCFandprofitmargins,wethinkthemostlikelydateforthestartofthenextsignificantUSslowdownisQ32020(butitcouldwellbealotlaterwithbetterinformationandinventorymanagement).Thisimpliesamarketpeakinmid-2019.Liquiditycond
8、itionsareneutral:Tacticalindicatorsareneutral(unlikeinlateJanuarythisyear,whentheywereat15-yearhighs).Flowshavenotfollowedtherisk-adjustedratioofequitytobondreturns;normally,theydo.Themostreliablecanaryinthecoalmine,whichwethinki
