瑞信-美股-金融业-特种金融2018年展望

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1、SpecialtyFinance2018OutlookJanuary5,2018RESEARCHANALYSTSMosheOrenbuchJamesUlan21253867952123258235moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comjames.ulan@credit-suisse.comHoangNguyen2123253357hoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDI

2、SCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectiv

3、ityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.KeyTakeawaysCreditCardIssuers:Lend-CentricModelPrevails.Weexpectcardloanstogrow~6%in2017andprivatelabel~1pptfaster.Weexpectcompetitioninrewardsandcobrandspacetocontinu

4、etoremainaggressive.Issuerswhocangrowlendingbalanceswillcontinuetobemostsuccessful;SYFisourtoppick.Risingratesshouldbeatailwindformargins,withtheexceptionofAXP.Strongmacroeconomicsandtaxcutshouldalsobeaplusforconsumersentimentandhencethecardissuers.Networks.Webelieve

5、thatcontinuedhealthyeconomicbackdropinmajorregionswillpushthenetworkshigherin2018.PotentialreboundincurrencyvolatilityandrecentdepreciationofUSDshouldalsohelpearnings.Furthermore,thecompletionofVisaEuropeintegrationshouldallowbothVandMAtoraisepricingin2018.WefavorVgi

6、venitsdominantpositionintheU.S.marketaswellasmoreconsistentachievementofoperatingleverage.StudentLending.WebelieveinvestorswillbefocusedontheSenate’sHEAreauthorizationbillaftertheHousereleasedadraftthatwasfavorabletoprivatelenders.Additionally,wearefocusedoncompetiti

7、oninthein-schoollendingspaceasnewlendersenterorplantoenterthein-schoolmarket.OurfavoritenameremainsSallieMaeduetooperatingleverage,solidcredit,andgoodoriginations.AutoLending.OurfavoritenameisSCasweexpect’18and’19EPStobenefitfromimprovingearningsasTDRsstabilizeandres

8、ervesmoderateaswellasstrongcapitalreturn.Asasub-sector,autolendersarelikelytofacesomechallenges,specifically,decliningSAAR,increasi