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1、SpecialtyFinance2Q19EarningsPreview9July2019RESEARCHANALYSTSMosheOrenbuchJamesUlan+1212-538-6795+1212-538-8235moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comjames.ulan@credit-suisse.comHoangNguyen+1212-325-3357hoang.nguyen@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORT
2、CONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthat
3、couldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CreditCardsAmericanExpress(AXP,Underperform,$108PT)Whattolookforonthe2Q19callInmillionsUSDunlessotherwisenotedSpendgrowthstrategy:Weforecast$3
4、13BnworldwidebilledbusinessintheCSEstsQ/QY/YConsensusquarter:$211BnUSbilledbusiness(+8%y/y)and$102BninternationalbilledEPS$1.96(22%)(3%)$2.03business(+1%y/y),asthegrowthmomentumhasslowedduetothelappingofone-timesurgeingrowthlastyearandFXheadwind(whichcouldsubsidei
5、n3Qand4Q).DiscountRevenue6,542(4%)5%6,584Discountrevenue:Weforecast$6.5Bnindiscountrevenue,andacalculatedEffectiveDiscountRate2.09%1bps2bpsdiscountrateof2.09%,asthepressureseemstohaveabatedondiscountratedueNetCardFees9545%14%959tothelappingofmultipleheadwinds.NetI
6、nterestIncome2,0551%12%2,100TotalNetRevenues10,745(1%)7%10,826Balancegrowthandlendingstrategy:Weforecast$83Bnincardmemberloans(+10%y/y)and$58Bnchargecardreceivables(+5%y/y).WelookforwardtoMarketing&BusinessDevelopment1,754(14%)17%1,769mgmt’scommentsonthecompany’sa
7、bilitytomaintainloanandreceivablegrowthCardmemberRewards2,630(3%)4%momentuminfaceofslowingloangrowthintheindustryandmodestlyslowingCardmemberServices56411%34%momentuminbilledbusiness."Adj.OperatingExpenses"2,7255%0%Expenses:Weforecast$7.7Bnintotalexpenses,whichinc
8、lude$1.8BninTotalOperatingExpenses7,672(4%)7%7,762marketingandbusinessdevelopmentexpense.ForecastedcardrewardsandservicesProvisions931(15%)4%883are$2.6B
