中国家用电器与电商行业：颠覆性渠道转换十年中的赢家和输家.docx

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、ChinaChinaConsumerAppliancesande-commerceSectorsBeyondthepandemic:WinnersandlosersinthedecadeofdisruptivechannelshiftsConsumerDiscretionary

3、ConnectionsSeriesTheCreditSuisse“BeyondthePandemic”seriesreflectsinvestmentthemesthatwillshapethefortunesofindustriesandc

4、ompaniesinthe“newnormal”ofapost-COVID-19world.Figure1:Thechannelshiftinhomeappliancesmarketandpotentialwinners/losersConnectionsSeriesTheCreditSuisseConnectionsSeriesleveragesourexceptionalbreadthofmacroandmicroresearchtodeliverincisivecross-sectorandcross-borderthematicinsightsforourc

5、lients.LosersBeingdisruptedIncumbentbrandsOff-lineretailersGree(N)GOME(NC)Robam(U)Suning(NC)WinnersAdaptingtothedisruptiveshiftIncumbentbrandsMidea(O)DisruptorsE-CommerceplayersEmergingbrandsJD.com(O)Xiaomi(O)Alibaba(O)Bear(NC)Pinduoduo(O)Xinbao(NC)2019channelmix3.8%5.0%4.5%41.2%21.5%24

6、.0%E-CommerceSpecialtyretailersStand-alonestoresDepartmentstoresOthersConstructionNote:NC=NotCovered.Source:Euromonitor,NBS,CreditSuisseestimates1.4%1.2%10.0%6.9%15.5%65.0%E-CommerceSpecialtyretailersStand-alonestoresDepartmentstoresOthersConstruction2030EchannelmixResearchAnalystsTon

7、yWang85221016728tony.wang@credit-suisse.comTinaLong85221017197tina.long@credit-suisse.comKynaWong85221016950DisruptivechannelshiftacceleratedbyCOVID-19.Webelievee-commerceplatformswouldbethebiggestwinners,withtheirshareofChinahomeapplianceretailsalesrisingto65%in2030E(2019:41%)attheexpe

8、nseofstandalonestoresanddistributors.Omni-channel/channelpenetrationarekeydriversfore-tailingtoexpandthetotaladdressablemarketandcaptureconsumerdemandinaversatilemanner,whilebrandswithself-developeddistributionnetworkarequicklyadaptingtoavoidbecomingobsolete.JDlikelythebiggestwinneramon

9、gdisruptors.Weestimateprofitfore-commerceplatformstogrowfromRmb12bnin2019(13%oftotalprofitpool)toRmb42bnby2030E(28%ofthepool),ata12%CAGR.JD’s1PretailmodelanditsstrongDNAasaconsumerelectronicsretailermakeittheperfectbeneficiarytogainsharesfromotherdistributionchannels,particular