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1、March25,2004OnlineLeisureTravelForecast2004-2009WebTravelContinuesItsSkywardClimbbyHenryH.HarteveldtwithSharynLeaver,EstherH.YuenEXECUTIVESUMMARYOnlineleisuretravelremainsrobust.Approximately30millionUSWebtravelhouseholdswillbuytravelonlinethisyear,forwhichthey'llspend$53billion.By2009
2、,thiswillreach46.4millionhouseholds,spendingnearly$111billion.AstheWebcapturesmoreofleisureBookers'spending—itwillsnag59%ofBookers'budgetsthisyear—vacationpackages,cruises,andhotelsarepoisedforthegreatestgrowth.THEONLINELEISURETRAVELGROWTHSPIRALCLIMBSEVERHIGHERLettherebenodoubtsthatWeb
3、travelremainsperenniallypopular.Despitenumerouseconomicandbusinesschallengesandslightlylower-than-expectedWebadoptionin2003,USonlineleisuretravelispoisedtosurgeforward.In2004,leisureBookers—onlinetravelerswhoresearchandbuyleisuretravelonline—willbuy$53billionworthofairlinetickets,lodgi
4、ng,rentalcars,vacationpackagesandtours,cruises,andAmtrakticketsontheWeb(seeFigure1).(seeendnote1)By2009,USonlineleisuretravelspendingwillreach$110.5billion.ThegrowthwilloccurbecauseBookers:DominatetheWebtravellandscape.InOctober2002,Forrestersaid"WelcometoBookerland,"andithassincebecom
5、eanincreasinglypopularneighborhood.Ournewforecastestimatesthatin2004,46%ofUSonlinetravelers—29.4millionUShouseholds—willbeBookers,upfrom27millionin2003(seeFigure2).By2009,44.3millionUShouseholdswillbuytravelonline.Spendmoreontravel.In2003,theaverageonlineUShouseholdthattraveledforleisu
6、respent$2,104foritsleisuretravelandtook4.5leisuretrips.Bookershistoricallyspendmoreontravel,andtakemoretrips—atrendthatcontinuedin2003,despitechallengesliketheIraqiwarandrecession,whenBookerhouseholdsspent$2,906for4.9leisuretrips(seeFigure3).In2004,ForresterestimatesthatBookerswillincr
7、easetheirleisuretravelspending4.8%,tomorethan$3,000.Spendmoreoftheirbudgetonline.In2004,theWebwillcapture59%ofBookers'leisuretravelbudget,risingtomorethan70%by2009(seeFigure4).NumerousfactorscementtheWebasBookers'channel-of-recordforleisuretravelbuying,includingincreasesintheWeb'subi
