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1、June28,201802:16PMGMT22June28,201809:42AMGMTSamsungElectronicsCorrection:ReducedExpectationMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+ShawnKimEQUITYANALYSTShawn.Kim@morganstanley.com+8523963-100522StockRatingIndustryViewPriceTargetMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC,SEOULBRANCH+RyanKimRESEARCHASS
2、OCIATE22Equal-weightCautiousW54,000Ryan.G.Kim@morganstanley.com+822399-493922GS9,volatilityinNAND,andOLED/LCDhavedisappointed,butmarketexpectationsforQ2appearlargelyde-risked.TrimourPTtoW54,000andremainEW.WHAT'SCHANGED?SamsungElectronics(005930.KS)From:To:PriceTargetW56,000.00W
3、54,000.00Forecastsreduced:ReflectingamorechallengingNANDpricingenvironmentandweakerS9productcycle,weforecastQ2OPatW14.8trandassumelowerOPgrowthin2018at17%(vs.21%previously)andflatin2019(vs.1%previously).OurEPSforecastsfallmarginallyby1-2%2018-20e,andwenotethat,historically,earnings
4、expectationsappeartobearelativelyreliableindicatorofSamsung'sshareperformance.However,atW47,950,SamsungistradingatalreadydepressedmultiplesofP/E6.1x2019e,P/B1.0xandFCFyield14%,andthe3%dividendyieldissupportive.StayEW.NANDunderpressurewithacceleratingsupplyandrisingenterpriseSSDcomp
5、etitionhasledtoasteeperpricedeclineinQ2(low-teensvs.7-10%amonthago)andadoubledigitquarterlyASPdropin2H18(-19%ASPin2018vs.-12%previously).Inventoryof4weeksishigherthanthenormal2-3,amidweakmobileNANDdemandand3Dsupplygrowth.DRAMsupplyshortageseasing,tooearlytocallachangeinthebackdropa
6、swecannotpredictpricesbeyondQ3.CloudspenddatapointsremainrobustdespiteDRAMspotpremiumtocontractpriceshavingerodedbutwekeepourpricingoutlookunchangedat+1%inQ3andflatinQ4.SamsungElectronics(005930.KS,005930KS)S.KoreaTechnology/S.KoreaStockRatingEqual-weightIndustryViewCautiousPricet
7、argetW54,000Up/downsidetopricetarget(%)15Shrprice,close(Jun28,2018)W46,80052-WeekRangeW57,520-44,220Shout,dil,curr(mn)6,455Mktcap,curr(bn)W302,090EV,curr(bn)W222,780Avgdailytradingvalue(bn)W627FiscalYearEnding12/1712/18e12/19e12/20eModelWareEPS(W)6,8478,3387,9248,080PriorModelWareE
8、PS(W)-8,4518,1148,184Conse
