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1、MFOUNDATIONJuly26,201808:00PMGMTGlobalEconomicsGlobalSupplyChainImpact:Who'sMostExposed?Theimportanceofglobalvaluechainshasmeantthatimporttariffswillhavefar-reachingimplications.Weuseaninput-outputmodeltoanalysevariousscenariosandidentifythecountriesandsectorswhichareexposed.80%oftheg
2、rowthimpactcanbeattributedtosupplychaindisruptions.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MFOUNDATIONGlobalEconomicsGlobalSupplyChainImpact:Who'sMostExposed?Analysingtheimpactoftrademeasuresonthesupplychain:In(outsid
3、etheeuroarea)wouldbeaffectedtoo,giventheirtightinte-thisreport,weuseaninput-outputmodeltoanalysethegrowthgrationintheglobalsupplychain.Sectorssuchasminingandquar-impact,whichallowsustocapturethedirectimpactondemandandrying,electronics,wholesaletrade,chemicalsandproductsthereofitsspill
4、overeffects.Indeed,asreflectedinoursimulations,theaswellasmachineryandequipmentwouldbemostimpactedinoursupplychaineffectdominates,withalmost80%oftheeventualseverescenario(scenario4).Theintermediatesectorswhicharenotgrowthimpactattributabletothesespillovereffects.directlyexposedtotarif
5、fsarejustasimpacted,ifnotmore.Impactmanageablefornow,butsignificantescalationwillCross-assetstrategyimplications(AndrewSheets):Thebaseimpartmaterialdownsidetogrowth:Globalgrowthwouldbecaseofprotractedtradetensionssupportsabroad-basedbiastobeimpactedbyjust9bpfromthetrademeasureswhichha
6、vebeenorarelongvolatilityacrossmostassetclassesoverthenextthreemonths.Specifically,ourstrategists'modellingsuggestsoutsizedimpactsforabouttobeimplemented.Ameaningfulimpactof21bponglobalCanadaandTaiwan,supportingcautiousviewsonCADandTWD.Wegrowthcouldresultifa10%tariffwasimposedonUS$200
7、billionthinkthatJPYandEUR,notUSD,wouldbesupportediftradeten-worthofChina’simportsanda22.5%tariffleviedonEUcarimports.sionsescalate,givenlargedirectimpactsontheUSeconomyandThisimpactwouldriseto31bpifallimportsfromChinawereaffectedpotentialshiftstointerestratepricing.andfurtherto81bpina
8、scena
