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1、ABGlobalResearch17July2018USEquityStrategyAmericasEquityStrategyTradewars:whoarepotentialwinnersandlosers?UBSEvidenceLabHTS-NAICSmapping;industryeffectsofUS-ChinatariffsUBSEvidenceLabDataScienceteamaggregatedUS-ChinatradedataattheHTS(HarmonizedTariffSchedule)codeleve
2、lfromtheUSCensusBureau,andmappedittoNAICScodes.Weusethismappingtoestimateindustryimpactsandidentifycompaniesthatcouldbeimpactedbytariffs.Theadditionoftheproposed10%tariffson$200bnofChineseimportswouldaffectsomeindustriesbymuchmoreasa%ofoutput/sales,suchascommequip(6.
3、9%ofoutput),electriclighting(6.3%)andHHfurniture(4.1%),whichis2-3xthelevelsofthepriorround.Thegreater1storderimpactsshouldmeanthat2ndorderimpactsareevenlargeraswellthroughthesupplychain(link).Beneficiaries:domesticproducersinindustriesaffectedbytariffsWhileattentionh
4、asfocusedonthenegativesoftariffs,domesticproducersofimpactedgoodsshouldbenefit.Forexample,washingmachinespriceswentupby13%forthecategoryafterthetariff,likelybenefittingUSmanufacturerssuchasWHR.WeidentifyS&P900stocksinNAICS4-digitindustrieswheretariffsareover50bpofout
5、put,groupingfirmsbyUSasset%asaproxyfordomesticproduction.FirmswithhigherUSassetsshouldbenefit,particularlyvsfirmswithoffshoreproduction.IndustrieswithhigherconcentrationsbasedonHHIscoresandthuslowersensitivitytopriceshouldseeUSproducersbenefitevenmore;appliancemfgand
6、othertransportequipmfgstandout,butproposedtariffshaveavoidedconcentratedindustriesthusfar.Losers:exportersinaffectedindustries,Chinasalesexposure,importers/retailUSexportersofgoodstoChinawouldlikelybehardesthit,butthelistisfairlysmall,thoughgoodperformancesincemid-Ma
7、rchsuggeststheriskisnotfullypriced.USfirmswiththegreatestChinasalesexposure(UBSCHEXP)haveunderperformedby3.5%sincetensionsescalated,butcouldseefurtherpressureifChinaretaliates;Semis,TechHdwr,Autos/PartsandUSconsumerbrandsleadthelist.Over$55bnofconsumergoodsand>$110bn
8、ofcomputers/cellphones/electronicshaveavoidedtariffs,butsomemadethelist(leather,furniture,appliances).Retailandappareloutperformedn
