玉米总产量预报模型

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1、本科毕业论文题目：日照玉米总产量预报模型院（部）：理学院专业：信息与计算科学班级：信计054姓名：朱庆亮学号：2005121355指导教师：夏省祥完成日期：2009年6月15日山东建筑大学毕业论文目录摘要·································································ⅡABSTRACT····························································Ⅲ1前言1.1研究的目的和意义·······················

2、······························11.2国内外研究现状·······················································21.3研究内容·····························································32资料来源及处理方法2.1资料来源·····························································42.2处理方法······················

3、······································43玉米产量预测的灰色模型3.1GM(1,1)III山东建筑大学毕业论文模型的建模原理·············································73.2GM(1,1)模型的建模过程及求解·······································73.3结果与分析···························································84玉米产量回归分析预报模型4.1日照地

4、区状况及玉米生理特征··········································114.2模型假设及符号说明··················································124.3玉米产量回归分析预报模型············································134.4日照玉米产量分析及预报··············································134.5日照玉米单产的滑动平均预报方法···············

5、·······················144.6玉米产量的预测······················································215结论··································III山东建筑大学毕业论文·······························24谢辞··································································25参考文献··························

6、····································26III山东建筑大学毕业论文摘要本文采用山东省气象局、山东省日照市气象局，山东省日照市农业局等不同地区（其中在三个试验点）进行的实验数据，其中包括1971—2008年的玉米产量，种植面积资料以及同期的气象资料等。通过滑动平均法对单产量进行处理，利用灰色模型对单产量进行简单的处理预测，分离趋势产量与气象产量，用多项式法对趋势产量进行模拟和分析。同时利用SPSS软件的相关性分析，回归分析等功能对数据进行处理，找出相关性因子，并得到回归方程，进而模拟气象产量，得到玉米产量与气

7、象因子之间的关系，最后预测实际的玉米产量。分析结果表明：日照市的玉米气象产量主要同播种期，成熟期等重要时期的相对湿度，日照，降水量和其他一些气象因子有关。在分析模拟的基础上，建立日照单产量模拟预测的计算机模型，初步开发了日照玉米产量的预报系统。关键词:玉米；回归分析；气象产量；趋势产量；灰色模型IIIIII山东建筑大学毕业论文PredictionModelsofMaizeYieldinRizhaoABSTRACTBytheexperimentaldatacomefromMeteorologicalBureauofShandongProvinc

8、e,RizhaoCityMeteorologicalBureau,RizhaoCityAgricultureBureauotherregionsofRizhao,i