[耶鲁大学开放课程：金融市场].lecture.14

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1、001.28,002.42我认为Ithink...the,sortof,002.42,006.45当你谈到金融市场时firstthingthatIthinkmostpeoplethinkabout006.45,007.26大多数人首先想到的事情orthefirstquestion007.26,011.11或者说首先想到的问题whenyou'rethinkingaboutfinancialmarketsis011.11,012.43应该是市场是否有效whetherthey'reefficientornot012.4

2、3,018.97市场是否已经包含了所有已知信息Whethertheyincorporateallknowninformation018.97,020.75我们是否能够获得ifit'spossibletodo,sortof,020.75,027.21比市场整体显著更佳的收益significantlybetterthanthemarketasawhole.029.26,031.46我不太确定I'mnotsure031.46,035.04曾经经济学绝对的共识是Usedtobeabsolutelyreceivedecon

3、omicwisdom035.04,037.79金融市场是有效的thatfinancialmarketswereefficient.037.79,038.99现在呢Nowit's...038.99,043.44我觉得从学术角度来讲这还是主流观点Ithinkit'sstillthedominantacademicview,043.45,048.46但出现了较大的争议butthere'sabigdebateand048.46,051.74两方都有不少支持者therearepartisansonbothsides.051

4、.74,052.97事实上对我而言It'sactually...tome,052.97,055.64其实是个简单明了的问题it'sactuallyafairlysimplequestion.055.64,000.49市场有效性这个概念Theefficient...thenotionthatmarketsareefficient000.49,003.16是从一个先验理论衍生而来derivesfromanaprioritheory,003.16,006.38与所有市场理论同出一门whichisthesamesorto

5、ftheoryaboutallmarkets.006.38,007.38市场中有很多激励因素Therearelotsofincentives,007.38,011.57人根据自己的利益来行动peopleactingintheirowninterests,011.57,014.23他们就是这样theyhavetodothat.014.23,019.95这是很诱人的先验理论It'saveryappealingkindofaprioritheory,019.95,023.76可是任何理论的问题在于butthething

6、abouttheoriesis023.76,025.33它们要能拿来做预测they'resupposedtomakepredictions.025.33,029.71如果预测的事情没有出现Ifsomeofthethingstheypredictdon'tcometrue,029.71,031.63那么这个理论就得被抛弃thetheoryhastobedisregarded031.63,033.48有非常多的例子andtherearemany,many,033.48,040.36可以推翻金融市场有效假说manyco

7、unterexamplestofinancialmarketefficiencies.041.35,044.84比如一些公司会发行Ononelevel,therearethingslikecompanies044.84,048.23两支不同的股票thathavetwodifferentclassesofstock048.23,050.86但是这两只股票在经济意义上完全相同thatareeconomicallyidentical.052.82,059.86皇家壳牌曾经在荷兰发行过股份RoyalShellusedto

8、haveDutchshares059.86,02:10.55也在伦敦发行过股份thattradedinHollandandU.K.SharestradedinLondon.02:10.55,02:13.22经济意义上两者完全相同Economicallyidentical,02:13.22,02:18.62但价格却有波动和极大的差别变化buttheirpriceswould