The East Asian Dollar Standard and China’s Exchange Rate

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1、TheEastAsianDollarStandardandChina’sExchangeRateRonaldMcKinnonStanfordUniversityApril,2005TheExchangeRateDebateinthe1990sBefore1997,EastAsiancountries,exceptforJapan,“softly”peggedtheirexchangeratestotheU.S.dollar.1997-98Crisis:Thailand,Indonesia,Philippines,Korea,andMalaysiaare

2、attackedanddevalue—withbankruptciesandeconomicdownturnsspreadingcontagiously.TheIMFblamesthesoftpeggingforencouragingoverborrowingandcurrentaccountdeficitsleadingunsustainabledollarandyendebts.Itwarnsagainstanyreturntodollarpegging.Williamson(2000),Kawai(2002),OgawaandIto(2002)—

3、suggestweightingtheJapaneseyenmoreheavilyinthecurrencybasketsofthesmallerEastAsianeconomiesinthefaceofwidefluctuationsintheyen/dollarrate.TheDebateIntheNewMillenniumBy2003into2005,theEastAsian“crisis”andnoncrisiseconomieshadreturnedtosoftdollarpegging.ChinaandHongKongretainedhar

4、dpegsthroughthecrisis,andMalaysiapeggedinSept1998at3.8ringgitperdollar.Eventheyen/dollarrateismorestable.ButnowallEastAsiancountriesrunlargecurrentaccountsurpluses—evenwithnetinflowsofFDI(China).In2003and2004,onlymassiveofficialinterventionskepttheirexchangeratesfromappreciating

5、.IntensifiedpressurefromtheIMF,theG-7,andtheU.S.Treasury,forChinatoappreciate:“Thereshouldbemoreflexiblecurrencies,notonlyforChinabutthewholeofAsia”RodrigodeRato,IMFManagingDirector,29Sept2004atIMF-WorldBankMeetingsinWashington.Table3:EastAsianCurrentAccountsinComparisontotheU.S

6、.,1990-200319911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004*PercentofGDPJapan2.03.03.02.72.11.42.33.02.62.52.12.83.23.7Singapore11.311.97.216.217.715.215.622.618.614.519.021.530.919.8Taiwan7.14.13.12.72.13.92.41.32.82.96.49.110.06.6Indonesia-3.3-2.0-1.3-1.6-3.2-3.4-2.34.

7、34.15.34.94.53.90.5Korea-2.8-1.30.3-1.0-1.7-4.4-1.712.76.02.71.91.32.04.2Malaysia-8.5-3.7-4.5-6.1-9.7-4.4-5.913.215.99.48.37.611.113.7Philippines-2.3-1.9-5.6-4.6-2.7-4.8-5.32.49.58.21.85.42.13.2Thailand-7.7-5.7-5.1-5.6-8.1-8.1-2.012.710.17.65.46.15.64.5China3.31.40.01.30.20.94.1

8、3.32.11.91.52.92.13.4HongKong1.56.44.36.18.511.