China’s Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US[文献翻译]

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1、英文原文：China’sExchangeRatePolicyandItsTradeBalancewiththeUSAbstractThispaperinvestigatestheclaimthatChina’sexchangeratepolicycausestheUStradedeficitwithChinatogrow.Althoughthereisnoevidencethatchangesintheexchangeratecausethetradedeficittoriseintheshort

2、run,astatisticallysignificantlong-runrelationshipbetweentheRMB/dollarexchangerateandtheUStradedeficitwithChinaisdetected.Asthevalueofthedollardeclines(orRMBappreciates),ceterisparibus,sodoesthetradedeficit.Hence,thereisaneedforChinatoadjustitsexchange

3、ratepolicytohelpreducetheevermountingUStradedeficit.1.IntroductionInthelasttwodecades,therehavebeenspectacularincreasesinthebilateraltradebetweentheUSandChina.In1984,thevolumeoftotaltrade(totalexportsandtotalimports)betweenthetwocountrieswasonlyUS$6.0

4、7bn,or11.33%ofChina’stotalforeigntrade(US$53.55bn)inthatyear.In1990,itincreasedbythreetimestoUS$20.04bn,or17.35%ofChina’stotalforeigntrade(US$115.44bn).Tenyearslaterin2000,thevolumeoftotaltraderosetoUS$116.20bn,whichaccountedfor24.53%ofChina’stotaltra

5、deofUS$474.30bn.In2002,thebilateraltradebetweentheUSandChinafurtherincreasedby27%toUS$147.32bn.Table1showsthetop20partnersintotalUStradebetween1990and2002.Theorderoftheeconomiesissortedbasedonthevolumeoftotaltradein2002.In1990,Chinawasrankedonly10thin

6、totalUStradewiththerestoftheworld.Itmoveduptotherankof9thoneyearlaterandto7thtwoyearsafterthat.In1996,Chinabecamethe4thmostimportanttradepartneroftheUSandhaseasilymaintainedthatranking.Table1alsorevealsanotherstrikingfact:thedifferenceinthevolumeoftot

7、albilateraltradewiththeUSbetweenthetopfourpartners(Canada,Mexico,Japan,andChina)andtheremainingtop16partnersisverylarge.Forinstance,thedifferenceinthevolumeoftotaltradewiththeUSin2002betweenChina(ranked4th)andGermany(ranked5th)isUS$58.19bn,accountingf

8、or65.28%ofthetotalbilateraltradebetweenGermanyandtheUSinthatyear.AlongwiththisremarkablegrowthofbilateraltradebetweentheUSandChinaisheevergrowingUStradedeficitwithChina.Table2showstheUStradebalancewithchinabetween1984and2002.Duringthatperiod,U