基于copula-var的我国银行业风险水平分析

基于copula-var的我国银行业风险水平分析

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时间:2018-12-02

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1、AbstractAnalysisofChina'sbankingindustryrisklevelbasedonCopula-VaRAbstractAfterthefinancialcrisis,inordertoquicklyrelievethepressureoftheeconomic downturn,thecentralgovernmentquicklylaunchedaseriesofeconomicstimulusplan. However,Theseeconomicstimulusplantospureconomicgrowthwhilea

2、lsoplantedalotof hiddendangers.SinceChinaismainlyrelyingoninvestmenttospureconomicgrowth, leadingtothefinancialcrisis,China'srapidcreditgrowth,theexcessivegrowthofcreditto theaccumulationofriskwithinthebankingsystem.InthefieldofChina'sfinancialand bankingsectoroccupiesaveryimport

3、antposition,andthereforetheriskofthebankingsector willaffectthenormaldevelopmentoftheentirefinancialsector.Manytypesofrisksinthe bankingsector,theimpactbetweenbankingriskfactorsalsoalotofriskbetween complementaryandmutuallyreinforcing,measuredfromtheperspectiveoftheoverall bankin

4、griskbecomesincreasinglyimportant.Underthepressureoftheeconomicdownturn,theriskinthebankingsectorisgradually revealed.Inordertobeabletobeasobjectiveaspossibletoreflectthetruelevelofriskof thebankingsectorinChina,wehavechosentomeasuretheriskofthebankingindustryfrom theperspectiveo

5、ftheoverall.14listedbanksselectedastheresearchsample,OLSregression, riskdailyyieldestimates,thencalculatedriskincomedistribution,theuseofthetheCopula functionofconnectingdifferenttypesofrisk,throughtheMonteCarlosimulationofthe bankingindustryriskVaRvalue.Ascanbeseen,bycomparingth

6、elevelofriskinthe bankingindustrybeforeandafterthefinancialcrisischangedsignificantly.Afterthefinancial crisis,intheoverallthebankingsector’srisklevelissignificantlyhigherthanbeforethe financialcrisis.KeyWords:VaR,Copulafunction,Banking,RiskII目录目录主要符号说明...........................

7、..................................................................................................I 第一章导论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1选题的背景及意义.....................................

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