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1、NatGasT&SMLPsLogisticsNeedsStillStrong,butFERCRegulatedMLPModelFadingAway;501-GsPlayingOut;LNGAlltheWayNorthAmericaEquityResearch14November2018While2018hasproventobeafatefulyearfortheNatgasT&SMLPmodel,therecentearningsprovidedanupbeatoutlookfornatgaslogisticsfundamentals.Thequarterhi
2、ghlightedincreasingAppalachiansupply-pushasnewinfrastructureenteringservicedecreasedbasisdifferentialsandimprovedproducereconomics.Atthesametime,theoutlookfordemandpullcontinuestostrengthenwithLNGandMexicancapacitycomingonline.SowhilefewerinterstatepipelineswilllikelyresideintheMLPstr
3、uctureposttheFERC’sactionsspurringmultiplerollups,themacrobackdropappearsfavorablefornaturalgaspipelinesinservice.AlthoughmostoftheFERCinducedpainappearstobeintherearview,weremainwaryuntilthefinal501-GformstrickleinandFERCrespondstooperatorsthatoptedtodefendthestatusquo.Assuch,devoido
4、ftheserisks,LNGremainsourfavoritegas-focusednameinthisnote,especiallygivennear-termcatalystsincludingSPL5/CCL1-2achievingin-serviceontheearlysideandthepotentialforapositiveSPL6FIDinthenot-too-distantfuture.·MoreNatGasT&SMLPstodisappearbylate2018/early2019.Inatransformationalyearforthe
5、MLPsub-group,theremainingrollupsshouldwrapupbyyear-endorearlynextyearbasedonannouncedtimelines.ForDM,Dexpectstocompleteadefinitiveagreementin4Q18andclosebyearly2019.ForSEP,ENB’sapprovalbyconsentwillconstitutetherequisiteSEPunitholdervoterequiredtoapprovethetransaction,whichshouldoccur
6、onDecember12.Aswepreviouslynoted,wedonotanticipateaTCPbuy-inbyTRPgivenmanagement’spriorcommentaryandthinkthatTCPrepresentsoptionvalueonarecoveryinMLPequitycapitalmarkets.BWP,foldedinbyLthissummer,representedthefirstNatGasT&SMLPcasualtyoftheFERC’sactions.·LNGpoststrong3Q18andsignsanoth
7、erSPA—SPL6seemsinevitable.Afterrecordinganotherstrongquarter,Cheniereraised2018adj.EBITDAguidanceby$150mm.Moreimportantly,asevidencedbyCPC,PGNiG,Trafigura,andVitolsigningacombined~5mtpaoflong-termSPAsinrecentmonths,ChenierecontinuestobenefitfromahealthyLNGmarketwherebuyershavereturned
8、tothe
