2019年度金融策略报告：股指，伺机而动！

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2、..................................7...................................................................................7...........................................9美国经济短周期将于2019年触顶回落112.4.综述14...........................................................................

3、..........16...................................................................16.............................................18......................................20南华期货分支机构21lll数据来源：wind资料来源：wind资料来源：wind周期时段时长(月)上升阶段时长(月)下降阶段时长(月)1998.7-2000.2191998.7-1999.0271

4、999.3-2000.1102000.2-2001.12222000.2-2000.1082000.10-2001.12142001.12-2005.12482001.12-2003.2142003.2-2005.12342005.12-2009.12482005.12-2007.11232007.11-2009.2152009.2-2012.8422009.2-2010.2122010.2-2012.8302012.8-2016.2422012.8-2014.9252014.9-2016.2172016.2-？2016.2-

5、2017.7172017.7-？资料来源：南华期货表2.2.1中国制造业库存周期经验划分周期时段时长(月)库存上升阶段时长(月)库存下降阶段时长(月)1999.7-2002.10391999.7-2001.6232001.7-2002.10152002.11-2006.4412002.11-2004.12252005.1-2006.4162006.5-2009.8392006.5-2008.8272008.9-2009.8112009.9-2012.12392009.9-2011.10252011.10-2012.121420

6、13.1-2016.6412013.1-2014.10212014.10-2016.6202016.7-2019.11(?)402016.7-2017.4102017.5-2019.1130资料来源：美国经济短周期将于2019年触顶回落2.4.综述ØØ公用事业5.51%18.46%8.25%28.30%64.28%6.54%交通运输-9.37%-2.30%5.51%63.95%57.33%8.25%轻工制造4.80%11.97%7.50%65.45%51.07%10.03%家用电器20.01%23.22%7.15%91.67%

7、62.15%17.32%食品饮料23.44%31.87%17.10%74.41%31.83%18.67%纺织服装3.74%-0.23%6.84%70.95%42.25%8.41%医药生物9.62%22.12%8.72%70.75%43.70%10.96%房地产28.86%37.57%12.81%20.20%80.31%13.15%商业贸易42.00%52.59%3.24%109.02%56.61%8.14%汽车-1.92%4.81%5.19%93.77%57.70%11.50%轻工制造4.80%11.97%7.50%65.45

8、%51.07%10.03%