关于系统动力学的区域电力负荷中长期预测模型分析

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1、s#-．IL电力大学倾士学位论文AbstractElectricaIloadlong—termforecasting1Saveryimportantbasictaskintheelectricpowerindustrywhichisabasisofarrangingreasonablypowerandpowergridconstructionprogress，implementingsafe，highquality，economicdispatch，andprovidingmacroeconomicpolicy—making．Inrecentyears，electricityconsu

2、mptionvolatileinmanyregionsinChina，anddistributionofregionalpowersupplyandtransmissionisuneven．Regionalandstructuralfluctuationhasoccurred，whichhassignificantinfluenceonfasterandbetterdevelopmentofthenationaleconomyandregionaleconomy．Canacountryorregion’Spowerindustrybeahealthydevelopmentornot，r

3、egionalandlong—termpowerloadforecastingandplanningistheproblem．InordertOsolvetheproblemofregionalandstructuralfluctuationsofthepowerdemand，andmaintainhealthandbetterdevelopmentofnationaleconomicandregionaleconomic，regionalelectricalloadlong—termforecastingisviewedasasystem．First，thecomplexityoft

4、hesystemisanalyzedfromfourperspectives，whicharethesystemstructureofregionalpowerdemand，actorsofthesystem，complexcharacteristicsofthesystem，andthecomplexitymeasuremodelofregionalelectricalloadlong—termforecasting．Second，basedoncomplexityanalysisandsystemdynamics，themodelofregionalelectricalloadlo

5、ng—termforecastingisestablished．Third，accordingtohistoricaldataandstatusofShandongProvince，electricpowerdemandissimulatedandscenariosareanalyzedbythemodel，SOthemeasuresThelast，theideathatplannedpowerutilizationasanimportantpartofmodembusinessmanagement，particularlydemandsidemanagementandpowerloa

6、dforecastingareproposed．Conclusionsshowthatregionalelectricalloadlong-termforecastingisacomplexsystem，andsolutiontothecomplexityofregionalelectricalloadlong—termforecastingshouldbeginwiththeideaofoverallsystem．Theapplicationofsystemdynamicsisaneffectiveway．Specifically,thestudyonthecomplexityoft

7、heregionallong·termpowerloadforecastingisdetailedandcomprehensive，providingtheoreticalsupporttothesystemdynamicsstudyonregionalpowerdemand，whichhasastrongpracticalsignificanceforregionalpowerdemandandrelatedfactorsanalysis．T