Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models_Liu Haimeng.pdf

Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models_Liu Haimeng.pdf

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1、Sustainability2015,7,15570-15592;doi:10.3390/su71115570OPENACCESSsustainabilityISSN2071-1050www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainabilityArticleEstimatingtheImpactofUrbanizationonAirQualityinChinaUsingSpatialRegressionModelsChuanglinFang1,HaimengLiu1,2,*,Guangd

2、ongLi1,DongqiSun1andZhuangMiao31InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;E-Mails:fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn(C.F.);ligd@igsnrr.ac.cn(G.L.);sundq@igsnrr.ac.cn(D.S.)2UniversityofChineseAcademyofScienc

3、es,Beijing100049,China3CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,TaizhouUniversity,Taizhou225300,China;E-Mail:miaozhuang@nuaa.edu.cn*Authortowhomcorrespondenceshouldbeaddressed;E-Mail:liuhm.14b@igsnrr.ac.cn;Tel.:+86-10-6488-9101;Fax:+86-10-6488-9301.AcademicEdi

4、tor:PallavPurohitReceived:13October2015/Accepted:17November2015/Published:20November2015Abstract:UrbanairpollutionisoneofthemostvisibleenvironmentalproblemstohaveaccompaniedChina’srapidurbanization.Basedonemissioninventorydatafrom2014,gatheredfrom289c

5、ities,weusedGlobalandLocalMoran’sItomeasurethespatialautorrelationofAirQualityIndex(AQI)valuesatthecitylevel,andemployedOrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS),SpatialLagModel(SAR),andGeographicallyWeightedRegression(GWR)toquantitativelyestimatethecomprehensiveimpa

6、ctandspatialvariationsofChina’surbanizationprocessonairquality.TheresultsshowthatasignificantspatialdependenceandheterogeneityexistedinAQIvalues.RegressionmodelsrevealedurbanizationhasplayedanimportantnegativeroleindeterminingairqualityinChinesecities

7、.Thepopulation,urbanizationrate,automobiledensity,andtheproportionofsecondaryindustrywereallfoundtohavehadasignificantinfluenceoverairquality.PercapitaGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)andthescaleofurbanlanduse,however,failedthesignificancetestat10%level.TheGW

8、RmodelperformedbetterthanglobalmodelsandtheresultsofGWRmodelingshowthattherelationshipbetweenurbanizationandairqualitywasnotconstantinspace.Further,thelocalparameterestimatessuggestsignificantspatialvariationintheimpactsofvariousurbanizationfa

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