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1、EstimatingPopulationSizeUsingSpatialAnalysisMethodsA.Pinto,etal.abcdeA.Pinto,V.Brown,K.W.Chan,I.F.Chavez,S.Chupraphawan,R.F.bccedGrais,P.C.Lai,S.H.Mak,J.E.RigbyandP.SinghasivanonaWorldHealthOrganization,Lyon,FrancebEpicentre,Paris,FrancecUniversityofHongKong,HongKo
2、ngdMahidolUniversity,Bangkok,ThailandeUniversityofSheffield,Sheffield,UKEstimatingPopulationSizeUsingSpatialAnalysisMethodsAbstract:Inpopulationsizeisrequiredwithinthefirst24-72hourstoplanrelief-relatedactivitiesandtargetinterventions.Theestimationmethodshouldbeeas
3、ytousebyfieldworkersfromvariousbackgrounds,andminimizeintrusionforthedisplacedpopulation.Twomethodshaveal-readybeenontrial:anadaptationoftheQuadrattechnique,andanewerT-Squaretechnique.Here,wereporttheresultsofafieldtrialtotestthesealongsideanewlyadaptedspatialinter
4、polationapproach.WecomparedtheresultswithapopulationcensusofninehamletswithintheTanowsrisub-district,RatchaburiProvince,Thailand.Wemappedthestudyareatodefinethepopulationforinclusion,asapplicationsofthismethodwouldoccurinclosedsettings.Beforeimplementation,wesimula
5、tedthespatialinterpolationusinggeo-referencedpositionsofhouseholdsinthreeham-lets.Thisprocedureenabledustoestablishsomeoperationalparameterstoestimatepopulationsize,includingthenumberofrandompointsneededforthefieldtest,theradiusofthesampleregionandthedimensionofthe
6、gridintersectionontheinterpolatedsurface.Eachmethodwastestedoverthesamearea.Theinterpolationmethodseemstoproduceaccurateresultsat30m-gridspacing(at104%ofthecen-sus)withaworst-caseestimateat124%.TheseresultsarecomparabletothoseoftheQuadrat(92%to108%)andT-Square(80%)
7、.Themethodsareprovenfeasibletoapply,withahighacceptabilityamonglocalworkerswetrained.Theinterpolationmethodseemedtheeasiesttoconduct.There-sultsweretestedstatisticallywherepossible,thoughthiswasanexperi-mentalsetting,andfurthertrialisrecommendedKeyword:populationes
8、timation,crisis,GIS,spatialinterpolation,fieldsurvey272A.Pinto,etal.1IntroductionPopulationdisplacementduringcrisisconditionsisfrequent,andinmost
