Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach(2E byJeffrey)英文电子资料.pdf

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1、d7/14/994:34PMPage1ChapterOneTheNatureofEconometricsandEconomicDatahapter1discussesthescopeofeconometricsandraisesgeneralissuesthatresultCfromtheapplicationofeconometricmethods.Section1.3examinesthekindsofdatasetsthatareusedinbusiness,economics,andothersocialsciences.Section1.4provides

2、anintuitivediscussionofthedifficultiesassociatedwiththeinferenceofcausalityinthesocialsciences.1.1WHATISECONOMETRICS?Imaginethatyouarehiredbyyourstategovernmenttoevaluatetheeffectivenessofapubliclyfundedjobtrainingprogram.Supposethisprogramteachesworkersvariouswaystousecomputersinthema

3、nufacturingprocess.Thetwenty-weekprogramofferscoursesduringnonworkinghours.Anyhourlymanufacturingworkermayparticipate,andenrollmentinallorpartoftheprogramisvoluntary.Youaretodeterminewhat,ifany,effectthetrainingprogramhasoneachworker’ssubsequenthourlywage.Nowsupposeyouworkforaninvestme

4、ntbank.Youaretostudythereturnsondif-ferentinvestmentstrategiesinvolvingshort-termU.S.treasurybillstodecidewhethertheycomplywithimpliedeconomictheories.Thetaskofansweringsuchquestionsmayseemdauntingatfirst.Atthispoint,youmayonlyhaveavagueideaofthekindofdatayouwouldneedtocollect.Bytheend

5、ofthisintroductoryeconometricscourse,youshouldknowhowtouseecono-metricmethodstoformallyevaluateajobtrainingprogramortotestasimpleeco-nomictheory.Econometricsisbaseduponthedevelopmentofstatisticalmethodsforestimatingeconomicrelationships,testingeconomictheories,andevaluatingandimplement

6、inggovernmentandbusinesspolicy.Themostcommonapplicationofeconometricsistheforecastingofsuchimportantmacroeconomicvariablesasinterestrates,inflationrates,andgrossdomesticproduct.Whileforecastsofeconomicindicatorsarehighlyvisibleandareoftenwidelypublished,econometricmethodscanbeusedineco

7、nomicareasthathavenothingtodowithmacroeconomicforecasting.Forexample,wewillstudytheeffectsofpoliticalcampaignexpendituresonvotingoutcomes.Wewillconsidertheeffectofschoolspendingonstudentperformanceinthefieldofeducation.Inaddition,wewilllearnhowtouseeconometricmethodsforforecastingeco