申银万国-中化化肥

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1、上市公司化工June1,2010点评中化化肥(0297.HK)—6个月目标价下调为港币4.85,维持增持评级增持Financialsummaryandvaluation:维持200820092010E2011E2012ERevenue(CNYmillion)45392.9027010.7141437.5047680.2655065.01MarketData:May31YOY(%)59.94(40.50)53.4115.0715.49ClosingPrice(HKD)3.65Netincome(CNYmillion)1907.80

2、(1465.97)1063.61398.001653.29PriceTarget(HKD)4.85YOY(%)188.23(176.84)-31.4318.26HSCEI11494EPS(CNY)0.27(0.21)0.150.190.2352-weekHigh/Low(HKD)5.72/3.19DilutedEPS(CNY)0.27(0.20)0.140.190.22MarketCap(HKDmillion)25590ROE(%)13.28(11.69)7.679.049.60SharesOutstanding(million

3、)7012Debt/asset(%)52.3050.4453.9552.3651.33ExchangeRate(CNY/HKD)0.88DividendYield(%)0.670.000.200.520.62P/E(x)11.69-21.9416.6614.09P/B(x)1.561.791.621.451.30PricePerformanceChart:EV/EBITDA(x)13.64(19.16)21.7116.9014.03Note:DilutedEPSiscalculatedifalloutstandingconver

4、tiblesecurities,suchasconvertiblepreferredshares,convertibledebentures,stockoptionsandwarrants,wereexercised.P/Eiscalculatedasclosingpricedividedbyeachyear’sEPS点评:Source:Bloomberg中化化肥昨天宣布它已经签订协议以不超过2600万美元的价格向加钾购买7万吨钾肥。相关研究:“Sinofert(0297.HK)-6-monthTPcutto公司并未披露准确的购

5、买价，但是我们相信价格应接近每吨370美元。到HKD5.18,maintainoutperformrating”,目前为止加钾已经向中化化肥提供了42万吨钾肥。我们预计加钾2010年March19,2010会向中化化肥供应100万吨钾肥，平均价格为每吨370美元，高于我们之前每吨350美元的预测。我们调整了钾肥购买成本的假设并且下调了2010，2011和2012年的钾肥毛利水平。因此我们将2010，2011和2012年的EPS预测由之前的人民币0.18,0.23,0.27元下调为人民币0.15,0.19,0.23元。6个月目标价

6、也由之前的港币5.18下调为港币4.85，距离目前股价港币3.65有32.88%的上涨空间。我们维持增持评级。HaitaoWangwanght@swsresearch.comMingShi,PhDshiming@swsresearch.comContactIrisZhu(8621)23297212zhuyy@swsresearch.comThecompanyoritsaffiliatemayhaveequitiesofthelistedcorporationreviewedauthorizedbylaw.Thecompanyma

7、yalsoprovideinvestmentbankingandconsultingservicetothelistedcorporation.TheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledge.Theclientsmaycontactcompliance@swsresearch.comfortherelevantdisclosur本研究报告通过网站仅提供SW108网站临时用户SharedUser(sw-11)使用1ematerials.Theclien

8、tsshallhaveacomprehensiveunderstandingofthedisclosureinthelastpage.June2010CompanyCommentShortcomment：zYesterday,Sinofertannouncedt