船舶油耗模型研究

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1、上海交通大学硕士学位论文船舶油耗模型研究201511DissertationSubmittedtoShanghaiJiaoTongUniversityfortheDegreeofMasterStudyonVesselFuelConsumptionModelCandidateRuiYeStudentID:SupervisorProf.JinsongXuAcademicDegreeAppliedforMasterofEngineeringNavalArchitectureandOceanSpecialtyEngineeringSchoolofNavalArchitecture,O

2、ceanAffiliationandCivilEngineeringDateofDefenseNovember,2015Degree-Conferring-InstitutionShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity船舶油耗模型研究摘要国际海事组织IMO拟通过船舶能效管理计划SEEMP建立适用于所有营运船舶的强制性能效标准，逐步控制和减少海上的CO2排放总量。而燃油开支在船舶运行成本中所占比例最大，该计划在降低排放的同时，必然会减少能耗并带来可观的燃油开支节约。上述经济、环境及法律法规因素共同决定了船舶必须以更低的油耗、更少的排放投入未来的实际运营。这在技术和管

3、理两方面都对船舶和船队提出了更高的要求。船舶能效管理计划SEEMP的实施必须透彻理解与船舶油耗相关的各种影响因素，并据此建立船舶油耗的预测模型。本文正是基于上述背景，寻求建立油耗模型的通用方法，量化各种环境及操作因素对于油耗和航速的影响程度，为航行优化提供决策基础，对于提高船舶能效运行指数EEOI具有决定意义。本文将丹麦籍客滚轮MSSmyril号作为研究案例，对船舶实测运行数据进行了分析和预处理，并使用人工神经网络构建了船舶油耗和航速的黑箱模型。基于实测数据与模型预测数据的对比，验证了上述油耗模型的准确性和实用性，对于后续研究和应用具有重要借鉴价值。关键词：船舶能效管理计划S

4、EEMP，油耗模型，黑箱模型，人工神经网络STUDYONVESSELFUELCONSUMPTIONMODELABSTRACTTheInternationalMaritimeOrganizationisplanningtoestablishamandatorystandardapplyingtoalloperatingshipswithShipEnergyEfficiencyManagementPlan(SEEMP)inordertograduallycontrolandreduceCO2emissionfromshippingindustry.Consideringthatf

5、uelexpenseoccupiesthelargestportionamongallshipoperatingcosts,thisplanwillalsoreduceenergyconsumptionandbringsconsiderablesavingsinfuelexpenseinthemeantime.Theseeconomic,environmentalandlegalfactorscodeterminethatallshipsshouldbeinoperationwithlessfuelconsumptionandemissioninthenearfuture,t

6、husleadingtohigherdemandstoshipsandcrewsintechnologicalandmanaginglevel.TheimplementationofSEEMPrequiresathoroughunderstandingofallfuelconsumptionrelatedfactorsandamodeltopredictfuelconsumptionbasedonsuchunderstanding.Againstthisbackdrop,thisdissertationisaimedatfindingacommonapproachtoesta

7、blishingapredictingmodeltoquantifytheimpactofenvironmentalandoperationalfactorstowardsshipspeedandfuelconsumption.SuchmodelprovidesadecisionbasisforvoyageplanningandplaysasignificantroleinimprovingEnergyEfficiencyOperationalIndicator(EEOI)ofallships.Inth