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1、4April2019EquityResearchReportThebullisslowing,butthere’sstillsomeupsideleftA-shareInvestmentAtlasEquityStrategyChinauTherallystillhaslegsbutcautionneededastherisksarealsorisinguWelowerourChinaCOEto9%(from10%):risk-freerateto2.5%(from3.0%)andequityriskpr
2、emiumto6.5%(from7%)uIncreaseourend-2019eindextargets,implyingupsideof10-13%;prefertheconsumerstaplesandindustrialssectorsandincreaseourweightingonrealestatetoneutralStillupside,butcautionneeded.TheA-sharemarkethasbeenthebest-performingequitymarketgloball
3、yin2019,withitsmajorindicesupbetween30%and42%y-t-dinUSDterms.Enteringtheearningsseason,A-shareearningsgrowthforecastsfor2018,2019and2020havebeenreviseddown2pptsinthelastmonth,and3-5pptsinthelastthreemonths.Soit’sfairtosaythecurrentstageoftherallyisnotbei
4、ngdrivenbyanimprovementinfundamentals,giventhesoftereconomicgrowth.CHINAINDEXTARGETSHSBCIndexQianhailevel*2019eUpsideHSBCQianhaiimplied12mforwardPESHCOMP3,1773,50010.2%13.3xCSI3003,9714,50013.3%13.3xSZComponent10,26011,50012.1%18.8xMSCIChina859410.4%15.
5、0xAsof2April2019.Source:Wind,MSCI,RefinitivIBES,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimatesStevenSun*,CFA(S1700517110003)HeadofResearch,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedstevensun@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983158KateZhang*(S1700118050003)AssociateShe
6、nzhenHowever,wethinkthereisstillmoreupsideduetogreaterpolicysupport,increasedparticipationbyforeigninvestorsfollowingMSCI’sdecisiontoquadrupletheA-shareweightinginitsglobalbenchmarksandtheenthusiasmofdomesticretailinvestors.Inparticular,theprogressoftheS
7、cienceandTechnologyInnovationBoardhasbeenanupsidesurprise.Raise2019eindextargets.Weraiseourend-2019eindextargets:SHCOMP3,500(from3,100),CSI3004,500(from3,800),andSZComponent11,500(from9,500),implyingupsideof10-13%fromthecurrentlevel.Ourindexrevisionsared
8、rivenbytwofactors,onepositiveandtheothernegative.Themajorpositivedriverisalowercostofequity(COE),discussedbelow;themajornegativeisthedownwardearningsrevisions.Onasectorbasis,weraiserealestatetoneutralgiveninexpensivevaluat
