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1、AEO2013EarlyReleaseOverviewExecutivesummaryProjectionsintheAnnualEnergyOutlook2013(AEO2013)ReferencecasefocusonthefactorsthatshapeU.S.energymarketsthrough2040,undertheassumptionthatcurrentlawsandregulationsremaingenerallyunchangedthroughouttheprojectionperi
2、od.ThisearlyreleasefocusesontheAEO2013Referencecase,whichprovidesthebasisforexaminationanddiscussionofenergymarkettrendsandservesasastartingpointforanalysisofpotentialchangesinU.S.energypolicies,rules,orregulationsorpotentialtechnologybreakthroughs.Readersa
3、reencouragedtoreviewthefullrangeofcasesthatwillbepresentedwhenthecompleteAEO2013isreleasedinearly2013,exploringkeyuncertaintiesintheReferencecase.MajorhighlightsintheAEO2013Referencecaseinclude:Crudeoilproduction,particularlyfromtightoilplays,risessharplyov
4、erthenextdecadeTheadventandcontinuingimprovementofadvancedcrudeoilproductiontechnologiescontinuetoliftprojecteddomesticsupply.DomesticproductionofcrudeoilincreasessharplyinAEO2013,withannualgrowthaveraging234thousandbarrelsperday(bpd)through2019,whenproduct
5、ionreaches7.5millionbpd(Figure1).Thegrowthresultslargelyfromasignificantincreaseinonshorecrudeoilproduction,particularlyfromshaleandothertightformations.Afterabout2020,productionbeginsdeclininggraduallyto6.1millionbpdin2040asproducersdevelopsweetspotsfirsta
6、ndthenmovetolessproductiveorlessprofitabledrillingareas.NaturalgasproductionishigherthroughouttheAEO2013ReferencecaseprojectionthanitwasinAEO2012,withnaturalgasincreasinglyservingtheindustrialandelectricpowersectors,aswellasanexpandingexportmarketRelatively
7、lownaturalgasprices,facilitatedbygrowingshalegasproduction,spurincreaseduseintheindustrialandelectricpowersectors,particularlyoverthenext15years.Naturalgasuse(excludingleaseandplantfuel)intheindustrialsectorincreasesby16percent,from6.8trillioncubicfeetperye
8、arin2011to7.8trillioncubicfeetperyearin2025.Althoughnaturalgasalsocontinuestocaptureagrowingshareoftotalelectricitygeneration,naturalgasconsumptionbypowerplantsdoesnotincreaseassharplyasgenerationbecau
