资源描述：
《bad management theories are destroying good management practice》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、JournalofEconomicPerspectives—Volume24,Number4—Fall2010—Pages85–102MacroeconomicsaftertheCrisis:TimetoDealwiththePretense-of-KnowledgeSyndromeRicardoJ.Caballerohherecentfierecentfinancialcrisishasdamagedthereputationofmacroeconomics,nancialcrisishasdamagedtherep
2、utationofmacroeconomics,Tllargelyforitsinabilitytopredicttheimpendingfiargelyforitsinabilitytopredicttheimpendingfinancialandeconomicnancialandeconomicccrisis.Tobehonest,thisinabilitytopredictdoesnotconcernmemuch.Itrisis.Tobehonest,thisinabilitytopredictdoesnotc
3、oncernmemuch.Itiisalmosttautologicalthatseverecrisesareessentiallyunpredictable,forotherwisesalmosttautologicalthatseverecrisesareessentiallyunpredictable,forotherwisettheywouldnotcausesuchahighdegreeofdistress.Ofcourse,itiswell-knownthatheywouldnotcausesuchahig
4、hdegreeofdistress.Ofcourse,itiswell-knownthatccertainelementscanincreasethefragilityofafiertainelementscanincreasethefragilityofafinancialsystem,suchashighlevelsofnancialsystem,suchashighlevelsoflleverageormismatchesbetweenshort-termliabilitiesandlong-termassets
5、,andthateverageormismatchesbetweenshort-termliabilitiesandlong-termassets,andthatttheseissuesmayjustifypolicyintervention.Butknowingthesemechanismsisquiteheseissuesmayjustifypolicyintervention.Butknowingthesemechanismsisquiteddifferentfromarguingthataseverecrisi
6、scanbepredicted.ModernCassandraswillifferentfromarguingthataseverecrisiscanbepredicted.ModernCassandraswillaalwaysclaimtohaveseenthecrisiscoming.Whattheywillnotsayishowmanytimeslwaysclaimtohaveseenthecrisiscoming.Whattheywillnotsayishowmanytimesttheysawthingscom
7、ingthatnevermaterialized,orhowthespecifiheysawthingscomingthatnevermaterialized,orhowthespecificmechanismscmechanismsbbehindthecrisisaredifferentfromthoseonwhichtheirpredictionswerebased.ehindthecrisisaredifferentfromthoseonwhichtheirpredictionswerebased.IInmyvi
8、ew,theconvictionthatonecanforetellaseverecrisisinadvanceismostlyanmyview,theconvictionthatonecanforetellaseverecrisisinadvanceismostlyammanifestationofpareidolia—thep
