T WASHINGTON STATE OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Estimating Household Size for Use in Popu

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1、WASHINGTONSTATEOFFICEOFFINANCIALMANAGEMENTPOPULATIONESTIMATES&EstimatingHouseholdSizeforUseinPROJECTIONSPopulationEstimatesResearchBriefNo.47ByThomasKimpelandTheresaLoweAugust2007THEOFFICEOFFINANCIALMANAGEMENT’S(OFM)April1populationestimatesprogramdevelopsestimatesforlocaljurisdictionsthatareus

2、edforrevenueallocationandprogramadministration(RCW43.62.020).ThisBriefrevisitsatopicdevelopedinResearchBriefNo.10wherearegressionprocedurewasdevelopedusingadministrativedatatoupdatehouseholdsize—akeyvariableusedinlocalpopulationestimatesbasedontheHousingUnitMethod.Additionalresearchintohousehol

3、dsizeiswarrantedbecausetheavailabilityofCensus2000dataprovidesanopportunitytotesttheefficacyofpreviousmodelswhilealsoprovidinganewbaselineuponwhichtobasemorerecentestimates.HousingUnitMethodTheHousingUnitMethodiscommonlyusedtoestimatecitypopulations.Thebasicformulaisshownbelow:Currentcityhousin

4、gxoccupancyratexavg.personsperoccupiedhouse=Personsinhouses+Currentpersonsingroupquarters(nursinghomes,correctional,otherfacilities)=PersonsinfacilitiesTotalcitypopulationTheabilitytoaccuratelygeneratepostcensalestimatesofpopulationisimportant.Eachyear,thestatedistributesasetofrevenuestocitiesa

5、ndtownsbasedonofficialApril1populationestimatesgeneratedbyOFM.Theannualpopulationestimatesarebenchmarkedtothemostrecentfederaldecennialcensus.Housingcountsareupdatedonthebasisofnewconstruction,demolitions,andannexations.Measuresofoccupancyandhouseholdsizeareupdatedonthebasisofavailableadministr

6、ativeorsurveydata.Annualfluctuationsinhouseholdsizeatthelocallevelisoneofseveralfactorsaffectingrevenueallocationtocities.Table1ChangeinHouseholdSizebyStructureTypeActualPPHPercentChangeinPPHStateofWashington19701980199020001970-19801980-19901900-2000Allhousing2.97372.60862.53482.5349-12.28-2.8

7、30.01Single-family3.26552.87292.79692.7731-12.02-2.65-0.85Multi-unitstructures1.92861.86331.87881.9271-3.390.832.57Mobilehomes/specials2.43322.38262.41342.4837-2.081.292.91Householdsizehaschangedconsiderablyoverthepastfewdecadesat