高分机械 research proposal

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1、ResearchProposalEarlyinferenceonreliabilityofautomotivecomponentsbyusingpastdataandtechnicalinformation1Background1.1SignificanceWhenanewproductistheresultofdesignorprocessimprovementsintroducedinitspredecessors,thenthepastfailuredataandtheexperttechnicalkno

2、wledgeconstituteavaluablesourceofinformationthatcanleadtoamoreaccuratereliabilityestimateoftheupgradedproduct.ThisproposalintroducesaBayesianproceduretoformalizethepriorinformationavailableaboutthefailureprobabilityofanupgradedautomotivecomponent.Theelicitat

3、ionprocessmakesuseofthefailuredataofthepastproduct,thedesignerinformationontheeffectivenessofplanneddesign/processmodifications,informationonactualworkingconditionsoftheupgradedcomponentand,foroutsourcedcomponents,technicalknowledgeontheeffectofpossiblecostr

4、eductions.Byusingtheproposedprocedure,moreaccurateestimatesofthefailureprobabilitycanarise.Thenumberoffaileditemsinafuturepopulationofvehiclesisalsopredictedtomeasuretheeffectofapossibleextensionofthewarrantyperiod.Finally,theproposedprocedurewasappliedtoaca

5、sestudyanditsfeasibilityinsupportingreliabilityestimationisillustrated.Theautomotivemanufacturersperformreliabilityanalysesontheirnewproductsinordertoverifytheattainmentofagivenreliabilitytargetataspecifiedperiodt0(e.g.,thewarrantyperiodorthefulllife).Thisai

6、msbothtosatisfytheexpectationsoftheircustomersandtocontroltherepair/substitutioncostsduringthewarrantyperiod.Ifthetargetisnotachieved,thentheproductreliabilityhastobetimelyimprovedbyidentifyingthemainfailuremodesandintroducingdesignand/orprocessmodifications

7、capabletoremovethem.Mainreliabilityevaluationsaregenerallyperformedatfourspecificmilestones,whichoccurduringthedevelopmentandafterthecommercializationofanewcarmodel.Inparticular:I.Atthebeginningoftheproductdevelopmentprocess(PDP)tovalidatethechoicesmadeforpr

8、oductandprocessdesign:theoutcomeisthefinaldesignrelease.Themaininferentialprobleminsuchaphaseisthelackofexperimentalreliabilitydataaboutthenewcomponents.II.DuringthelastphaseofPDP,whenthefinalex