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1、6June2019FocuschartsandtableFigure3:Mid/high-endbeersegmentsaregainingvolumesharesquicklyFigure2:Chinesebaijiuretailgrowthbysegment50%100%37%90%40%80%30%70%20%13%60%11%10%10%10%6%8%9%6%7%10%5%50%0%40%0%TotalPremiumHigh-endMid-rangeLow-end30%-10%-5%20%-20%-17%10%-3
2、0%0%2012-15CAGR2015-18CAGR2018-23ECAGRPremiumMid-PricedEconomyNon-Alc&OthersSource:Euromonitor,NationalBureauofStatistics,Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesNote:definitionofbaijiu’sretailpricebands:premium(aboveRmb800/500ml),high-end(Rmb500-800/500ml);mid-range(Rmb
3、100-500/500ml)andlow-end(belowRmb100/500ml)Source:Euromonitor,CreditSuisseestimatesFigure4:EV/EBITDAvs.ROICbyglobalspiritsandChinesebaijiucompaniesFigure5:EBITDA/toncomparison—Chineseplayersaremuchlowerbutimproving296300USD2020EEV/EBITDA264Globalspirits250ThaiBeve
4、ragePublicDiageoPernod-Ricard20181614121086420Chinese199200184178171165156ConstellationFenWineMoutai150LuzhouLaojiao131WuliangyeYanghe100515459464841464550330YanjingTsingtaoCRBABICarlsbergABI2020EROIC(China)(Asia)(Asia)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%2016201
5、72018Source:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesSource:CompanydataFigure6:ValuationcomparisontableCompanynameTickerMktcapTradingPriceTargetprice(LC)Up/DownCSratingEPSchg.fromprev.EPSP/E(x)EPSCAGREV/EBITDA(x)Leadanalyst(US$mn)6/4/2019OldNew(%)OldNew2019E2020E2019E2020
6、E2018-20E2019E2020EBaijiuWuliangyeLuzhouLaojiaoKweichowMoutaiJiangsuYangheShanxiFenWine000858.SZ000568.SZ600519.SS002304.SZ600809.SS55,73814,398159,18024,2646,788(99.2)(67.9)(875.3)(111.2)(53.8)97.065.0850.0124.065.0130.086.01,065.0130.060.031%27%22%17%12%OOOOOOOO
7、ON6.4%10.0%8.5%0.6%-3.0%8.0%11.3%10.9%-0.5%-10.8%22.321.625.818.225.618.217.521.816.321.625.8%27.8%19.7%12.5%21.4%14.014.216.412.715.911.111.213.611.113.4TonyWangBreweryTsingtaoBrewery-HshareChinaResourceBeerTsingtaoBrewery-AshareYanjingBrewery0168.HK0291.HK600600
8、.SS000729.SZ8,40913,7588,4092,624(45.3)(33.3)(45.9)(6.4)48.039.541.35.063.040.554.85.639%22%19%-13%OONUOOOU8.1%-3.9%8.1%-27.2%15.1%-8.0%15.1%-25.3%29.43
