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1、COREU.S.LifeScienceTools&Diagnostics1H19BiopharmaTracker:IncreasedINDUSTRYUPDATEEquityResearch10June2019Noise,ButFundamentalsLookSolidWhile1Q19resultsandcommentaryfeaturedmorenoisethanrecentquarters,webelievethatunderlyingfundamentalsinthebiopharmaendmarketremainhealthyfortheLifeScie
2、nceToolsandCROs.Therewereseveraleventsthatraisedincreasedlevelsofpharma&biotechuncertaintytostart2019.Notably,severalcompaniesissuedcautionaroundsmallmoleculeinvestment(acrossmulti-nationalsandwithChina’s4+7initiative).Additionally,Biogen’sAlzheimer’sfailureandmergeractivityamongpharma
3、sponsorsbroughttotheforefrontpotentialrisksaroundcancellationsfortheCROcoverage.Whilewearecognizantoftheneartermconcerns,asshowninourtrackers,wedonotbelievethesedynamicsdisruptourcorethesisaroundpositiveendmarketfundamentals:includingfunding,innovation&therapeuticutilization.Toprovidea
4、bettermethodoftrackingbiopharmaindustrygrowth,thisreportaggregatesacomprehensivesetofdatapointsweusetotrackendmarkettrends.ThisincludesourproprietarytrackersforbiopharmaR&D,IPOactivity,cashlevels,clinicaltrialsmix,CROandLifeScienceToolsgrowth,andFDAapprovaltrends.Pleasereachoutifyouwou
5、ldlikeacopyofanyofthetrackersfromthisreport.LifeScienceToolsTakeaways:Whileorganicgrowthslowedinthequarter(up4.9%,down290bpsq/q),theweaknessseemedtobecontainedinsmallmoleculeproductionapplications.Outsideofsmallmolecule,healthytrendsforotherToolscompanies(andtheCROs)helptoconfirmthequa
6、rterlyslowdownisn’tduetoabroader,market-relatedissue.Notably,weestimateorganicgrowthinbioproductiongrew19%inthequarter(overadouble-digitcomp),highlightingstructuraltrendstowardmorelife-scienceintensivemanufacturingoflargemoleculetherapeutics.WebelieveThermoFisher’s(TopPick,OW)uniquecap
7、abilitiesservingthebiopharmaendmarketwillserveasalong-termdifferentiatedgrowthdriverforthecompany.CROTakeaways:CROsarebenefitingfromrecentstrengthinbookingsactivity,whichisstartingtotranslatetoaninflectioninorganicrevenuegrowth.TheCROspostedanestimated7.5%y/yorganicgrowthin1Q19(exclu
