Generation investment psse study results

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1、Appendix13:PSS/EANALYSESANDRESULTSPreparedBy:SECIInterconnectionStudyTaskGroup(ISTG)March,2005GENERATIONINVESTMENTSTUDYTransmissionnetworkcheckingDraftReportMarch,2005carriedoutbyELECTRICITYCOORDINATINGCENTER,Ltd11040BELGRADE-VOJVODESTEPE412,SERBIAANDMONTENEG

2、ROandENERGYINSTITUTE”HRVOJEPOŽAR“-ZAGREBZAGREB–SAVSKACESTA163,CROATIAAuthors:Projectleaders:Mr.MiroslavVuković–EKC,BelgradeMr.DavorBajs–EnergyInstituteHrvojePožar,ZagrebProjectcoordinators:Mr.TrajceČerepnalkovski–ESM,SkopjeMr.KlimentNaumoski–ESM,SkopjeMs.Mari

3、jaStefkova-SecretaryParticipantsonproject:Mr.PredragMikša–EKC,BelgradeMr.DobrijevićDjordje–EKC,BelgradeMr.NijazDizdarevic–EnergyInstituteHrvojePožar,ZagrebMr.GoranMajstrovic–EnergyInstituteHrvojePožar,Zagrebmiro@ekc-ltd.comdbajs@eihp.hrii_____________________

4、_______________________________________________________CompleteGISReportTableofcontentsVolume1–ExecutiveSummary1EXECUTIVESUMMARY7Volume2–MainReport-ElectricityDemandForecast2ELECTRICITYDEMANDFORECAST292.1Objectives292.2WhatAreWeForecasting?312.3Background332.

5、4Approach402.5AssumptionsAndDataSources442.6ForecastingModel482.7ResultsAndValidation51Volume3-MainReport-Generation&TransmissionStudy3GENERATIONANDTRANSMISSIONSTUDY753.1Introduction753.2ComputerModels763.3WASPAndGTMaxRuns843.4CandidatePlant873.5FuelCosts943.

6、6FuelCosts–UtilityData1083.7FuelCosts–Reconciliation,ForecastStudyPrices1113.8BaseCaseAssumptions1163.9ScenarioA,BandCResults1213.10Conclusions1633.11Recommendations1724REFERENCES174Volume4–ElectricityDemandForecastAppendicesAppendix1:Reviewofeconometricstudi

7、esintotherelationshipbetweenGDPpercapitaandelectricitydemandAppendix2:DetailsoftheeconometricanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenGDPpercapitaandnetelectricityconsumptionAppendix3:BasisforlongtermGDPpercapitagrowthforecastsAppendix4:LoadshapeadjustmentsAppendix5:F

8、indingsfromECAmethodologyreviewAppendix6:CountryelectricitydemandforecastsVolume5–Generation&TransmissionStudyAppendicesAppendix7:CountrydataprofilesAppendix8:Specificcandidateplantandreh