Ian Pownall, Effective Management Decision Making

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1、IanPownallEffectiveManagementDecisionMakingAnIntroductionDownloadfreeebooksatbookboon.com2EffectiveManagementDecisionMaking:AnIntroduction©2012IanPownall&VentusPublishingApSISBN978-87-403-0120-5Downloadfreeebooksatbookboon.com3EffectiveManagementDecisionMaking

2、ContentsContentsIntroduction9Chapter1101.1EffectiveManagementDecisionMaking:Introduction101.2TheDualityofDecisionMaking?101.3TypesofBusinessandManagementDecisions141.4WhoisinvolvedinDecisionMaking?-TheDecisionBody171.5Thethreephasedmodel261.6Summary271.7Keyter

3、msandglossary27Chapter2292.1Developingrationalmodelswithqualitativemethodsandanalysis:Dataforecasting360°292.2SimpleAveragingForecasting302.3MovingAverages322.4ExponentialSmoothingDataForecastingthinking.352.5Errors,accuracyandconfidence412.6Causalforecasting(

4、explanatoryforecasting)432.7Non-linearForecastingandmultipleregression–Curvefitting60360°thinking.360°thinking.PleaseclicktheadvertDiscoverthetruthatwww.deloitte.ca/careersDiscoverthetruthatwww.deloitte.ca/careers©Deloitte&ToucheLLPandaffiliatedentities.Discov

5、erthetruthatwww.deloitte.ca/careers©Deloitte&ToucheLLPandaffiliatedentities.Downloadfreeebooksatbookboon.com©Deloitte&ToucheLLPandaffiliatedentities.Discoverthetruthatwww.deloitte.ca/careers4©Deloitte&ToucheLLPandaffiliatedentities.EffectiveManagementDecisionM

6、akingContents2.8Multipleregressionandpartialregressionanalysis712.9Completeworkednonlinearforecastingexamplewithseasonality732.10Summary832.11KeyTermsandglossary83Chapter31003.1Developingrationalmodelswithquantitativemethodsandanalysis:probabilities1003.2TheDe

7、cisiontree–amapofthesolutionset1023.3DecisionAnalysis1053.4Moreonprobabilities:ExpectedMonetaryValues(EMVs)1123.5Revisingprobleminformation–BayesTheorem1173.6TheValueofSampleandPerfectInformation1223.7Summary1253.8KeyTermsandglossary1263.9Chapterclosingquestio

8、n127Chapter41294.1Developingrationalmodelswithquantitativemethodsandanalysis:DistributionFunctionsandQueuingTheory1294.2Themathematicalfunction:discreteandcontinuousvariables1294.3