《外盘资料》PPT课件

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1、外盘豆类资料USBalanceSheet’11/12ProductionEconomics(Illinois)PoorCornonCornyieldthispastsummerinIllinois/Iowamakeaconvincingargumentagainstcontinuouscornplanting.Comparedtoaannualcorn/beanrotationacontinuouscornoncornplantingschedulegivesupnearly50%ofexpectedrevenue.’11/12USForecastedAcreageYOYBeanacreage

2、increaseof250kacresYOYCornacreageincreaseof700kacresArgentineBalanceSheetArgentine’11/12BeanCropAcreagewillremainunchangedversuslastseason,at18.7millionhectares.About80%willbefirstsoybeansand20%willbedouble-cropped(afterwheatorbarley)About53%isalreadyplanted,inlinewithlastseason.Estimatedyieldis2,6t

3、on/ha,7%belowthetrendand3%belowthelast5yearaverageyield.Cropisprojectedat48mmt,13%lowerthanlastseason.Argentine’11/12BeanCrop’11/12ArgentineCropEconomics’11/12ArgentineCropMargins(OwnedLand)’11/12ArgentineCropMargins(RentedLand)ArgentineStorageCapacity–IncreasedUseofSiloBagsBrazilianBalanceSheet’11/

4、12BrazilianProduction’11/12BrazilianCropEconomicsBrazilianCrushCrushSharebyStateBrazilianBiodieselInlandFreight–Santos/TubaraoContinuedstrengthinthereal,expansionofMTcrushandrapidincreasesofinteriorfreight(rail/truck)toSantos/TubaraowillleadtoareductioninavailabilityofMTbeans.Willcreatemorecompetiti

5、onforexportsfromthesouth(PGUA&RGDE)&thenorth(Aratu&PDM).CBOTinUSD&REAISUSDREAISNonCommercialLengthvs.PricesMonthlyBeanExportstoChinaYTDUSSales–19.5mmtYTDUSShipments–9.36mmtWorldBeanandMealDemandWorldBeanandMealDemandHighlightsChinaSteadyexpansionofcrush&healthymealincorporationintopoultryandhogratio

6、nsleadtoaprojectedMEQyoyincreaseof2.5mmt.EuropeBeancrushcontinuestoincreasebutareturntoanormalizedEuropeangraincropseesMEQdemanddown1.8mmtyoy;thereductioncomingintheformofreducedmealimports.MiddleEast/NorthAfricaIncreasedbeancrushinSaudiArabia,Syria&NAFaswellashigheroverallmealdemandseesMEQgrowthup2

7、00kmtyoy(intheformofbeanimports).SEAsia-ChinaNewcrushcapacityinVietnamaswellassteadygrowthindemandseesMEQgrowthup900kmt.WorldMealEquivalentDemand(Beans&Meal)WorldOilTradeGlobalDryBulkSeaborneTradebyCa