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1、IMFStaffPapersVol.48,SpecialIssue=©2001InternationalMonetaryFundMVPY1+t()t=+QEVQXPεε+>*FederalismWithandWithoutPoliticalCentralization:ChinaVersusRussiaOLIVIERBLANCHARDANDANDREISHLEIFER*(β=+yInChina,localgovernmentshaveactivelycontributedtothegrowthofnewfirms.InRussia,localgover
2、nmentshavetypicallystoodintheway,beitthroughtaxa-tion,regulation,orcorruption.WearguethatthedifferencecanbetracedtoliesinthedegreeofpoliticalcentralizationpresentinChina,butnotinRussia.In*Chinathecentralgovernmenthasbeenstronganddisciplinedenoughtoinducelocalgovernmentstofavorgr
3、owth.InRussia,ithasnot.Weagree,butwithan=PPSimportantcaveat.WebelievetheexperienceofRussiaindicatesthatanotheringredientiscrucial,namelypoliticalcentralization.[JELP30,P50]verthepastdecade,China’sGDPhasgrownatoneofthehighestratesin=LYi(Otheworld,Russia’satoneofthelowest.Thediffe
4、rencehascomemostly,fromthegrowthofthenewprivatesector.InChina,thenewprivatesectorhasthrived.InRussia,ithasstagnated.*,,YSPWhythissharpdivergencebetweenprivatesectorevolutions?Inbothcoun-tries,theevidencepointstotheimportanceofthebehavioroflocalgovernments.PInChina,localgovernmen
5、tshaveactivelycontributedtothegrowthofnewfirms(Oi,1992;QianandWeingast,1997).InRussia,localgovernmentshavetypicallystoodintheway,beitthroughtaxation,regulation,orcorruption(Shleifer,1997;Johnson,Kaufmann,andShleifer,1997;McKinsey,1999;andEBRD,1999).1−*OlivierBlanchardisProfessor
6、ofEconomicsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.Andrei1ShleiferisProfessorofEconomicsatHarvardUniversity.TheythankStanleyFischer,AlanGelb,Ed+Glaeser,SimonJohnson,RatnaSahay,JimSnyder,andDanielTreismanforcomments.TheythanktheEsttsNationalScienceFoundationforfinancialassistance
7、.1TheMcKinseystudyof10sectorsoftheRussianeconomy,andofthespecificobstaclesfacedbynewfirmsineachsector,isparticularlyinstructiveinthisregard.Fi**(1+)=S171OlivierBlanchardandAndreiShleiferTherearetwomainhypothesesfortheattitudesoflocalgovernmentsinRussia.Thefirst—callit“capture”—i
8、sthatlocalgovernmentshavebeencapturedbytheiniti
