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1、320IEEETRANSACTIONSONPLASMASCIENCE,VOL.38,NO.3,MARCH2010LessonsLearnedinRiskManagementonNCSXG.H.Neilson,C.O.Gruber,J.H.Harris,D.J.Rej,R.T.Simmons,andR.L.StrykowskyAbstract—TheNationalCompactStellaratorExperiment(NCSX)wasdesignedtotestphysicsprinciplesofaninn
2、ovativestellaratordesigndevelopedbyPrincetonPlasmaPhysicsLabora-toryandOakRidgeNationalLaboratory.Constructionofsomeofthemajorcomponentsandsubassemblieswascompleted,buttheestimatedcostandscheduleforcompletingtheprojectgrewasthetechnicalrequirementsandrisksbe
3、camebetterunderstood,leadingtoitscancellationin2008.Theproject’srisksstemmedfromitstechnicalchallenges,primarilythecomplexcomponentgeometriesandtighttolerancesthatwererequired.Theinitialbaseline,whichwasestablishedin2004,wassupportedbyariskmanagementplanandr
4、isk-basedcontingencies,bothofwhichprovedtobeinadequate.Technicalsuccesseswereachievedintheconstructionofchallengingcomponentsandsubassemblies,butcostandschedulegrowthwasexperienced.Aspartofanefforttoimproveprojectperformance,anewriskmanagementprogramwasdevis
5、edandimplementedin2007–2008.Itledtoabetterunderstandingofprojectrisks,asounderbasisforcontingencyestimates,andimprovedmanagementtools.Althoughtheriskswereultimatelyunacceptabletothesponsor,valuablelessonsinriskmanagementwerelearnedthroughtheexperienceswithth
6、eNCSXproject.IndexTerms—Management,NationalCompactStellaratorEx-Fig.1.Modularcoilsandplasmaconfiguration.periment(NCSX),risk,stellarator.TheNCSXdesignwasbasedonamagnetconfigurationthatI.NCSXPROJECTwasgeneratedbyanumericaloptimizationprocesstoprovideHENationalC
7、ompactStellaratorExperiment(NCSX)plasmaswithattractivephysicspropertieswithinengineeringTwasdesignedtotestthephysicsofacompactquasi-feasibilityconstraints.Thethree-periodmagnetsystemcon-axisymmetricstellarator(QAS)configuration[1],[2].TheQASsistedof18modularc
8、oils(sixeachofthreedifferentshapes),uses3-Dstellaratormagneticfieldsforsteady-statedisruption-plustoroidalfield,poloidalfield,andtrimcoils.Themodularfreeoperationbuthasatokamak-likemagneticfieldsymm
